Monday, 31/08/2026 at 19:00
Full timeOmonia Nicosia 0:0 Omonia Aradippou
Omonia Nicosia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 62%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Omonia Nicosia's attack: 2.96 xG against 2.04 projected (+0.92).
The model against the result
- Omonia Nicosia
- 62%
- Draw
- 24% What happened
- Omonia Aradippou
- 14%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Omonia Nicosia produced 0.92 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 8
- On target
- 7
- 1
- Inside the box
- 11
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.12
Recent form
2.00 xG created 0.99 xGA
- W 0.56 created, 0.48 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
- W 2.16 created, 1.19 conceded against Apollon Limassol
- W 3.08 created, 0.64 conceded against Aris Limassol
- W 2.05 created, 1.91 conceded against Pafos FC
- D 2.60 created, 0.84 conceded against AEK Larnaca
- W 1.57 created, 0.86 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
1.58 xG created 1.44 xGA
- L 1.94 created, 1.44 conceded against AEL Limassol
- D 1.25 created, 1.03 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta
- D 2.09 created, 2.53 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- L 0.79 created, 0.52 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
- W 1.87 created, 1.54 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas
- W 1.55 created, 1.58 conceded against Ethnikos Achnas
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Aradippou to win | 13.00 | +82.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 7.00 | +66.4% | Won |
| Omonia Aradippou 2+ goals | 6.00 | +47.9% | Lost |
| Omonia Nicosia at most 1 goal | 3.75 | +39.9% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | +29.9% | Lost |
| Omonia Aradippou to score | 2.00 | +29.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | +6.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia | 62.2% | 79.6% | −17.4 pp | 1.61 |
| Draw | 23.8% | 13.3% | +10.5 pp | 4.21 |
| Omonia Aradippou | 14.0% | 7.1% | +6.9 pp | 7.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia to score | 89.0% | 89.6% | −0.6 pp | 1.12 |
| Omonia Nicosia not to score | 11.0% | 10.4% | +0.6 pp | 9.09 |
| Omonia Aradippou to score | 64.8% | 46.3% | +18.5 pp | 1.54 |
| Omonia Aradippou not to score | 35.2% | 53.7% | −18.5 pp | 2.84 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 42.3% | +16.7 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.0% | 57.7% | −16.7 pp | 2.44 |
| Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals | 62.7% | 75.0% | −12.3 pp | 1.60 |
| Omonia Nicosia at most 1 goal | 37.3% | 25.0% | +12.3 pp | 2.68 |
| Omonia Aradippou 2+ goals | 24.7% | 15.6% | +9.0 pp | 4.06 |
| Omonia Aradippou at most 1 goal | 75.3% | 84.4% | −9.0 pp | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.8% | 83.0% | +0.8 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.2% | 17.0% | −0.8 pp | 6.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 64.5% | −5.0 pp | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 35.5% | +5.0 pp | 2.47 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Omonia Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Omonia Aradippou sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.