What the chances were worth
xG analytics, team and player statistics, match probabilities and betting edges across 30+ European leagues.
Built from shot-level data using competition-specific Poisson and Dixon–Coles models.
- Competitions
- 31 European leagues covered
- Today
- 1 match with a projection
- Qualified edges
- 1 where model and market disagree
Today's football
View all 1 match →Across Europe
Leagues differ in strength; these figures are not adjusted for it.Best xG difference
+2.75 xGD per match
Barcelona La Liga · Over 9 matches with xG xG difference tablePoints vs expected points
+11.7 points vs xPts
Viking FK Eliteserien · 44.3 xPts, 56 points: 11.7 above Expected points tableWhat the numbers say
Scoring above and below their chances
FC Lugano have scored 13.18 more than their chances were worth, the widest gap in any league we cover.
Best recent xG form
Expected goal difference per match over each club's last five matches with xG, with at least four in the last 35 days.
Most open match today
The model expects more goals here than in any other match today.
Scoring rate
Goals per 90 minutes this season. A player counts once he has played at least 270 minutes and 40% of his club's minutes, so a competition five rounds in sits beside one thirty rounds in.
Results that defied the chances
The scoreline against the xG line. A result counts when the two differ by two goals or more, or when the side that lost or drew created more by 0.75 xG or more.
Teams to Watch
Strong underlying form
Southampton Championship+0.89 xGD per match
Last 4 · 7.57 xG for, 4.01 against
Finishing above their chances
Young Boys Swiss Super League33 goals vs 22.95 xG
This season · 10 matches
Defence tightening
Derby County Championship1.00 xGA per match, last 4
vs 2.02 over the 7 matches before
Explore Leagues
View all 31 competitions →Where model and market disagree
View every qualified edge →-
Swiss Super League
FC Vaduz – Servette FC
FC Vaduz not to score
- Model
- 20%
- Fair price
- 5.03
- Bet365
- 7.00
- Edge
- +39.2%
- Price captured
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Allsvenskan
IF Elfsborg – Malmö FF
Malmö FF 2+ goals
- Model
- 53%
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Bet365
- 2.63
- Edge
- +39.1%
- Price captured
-
Süper Lig
Eyüpspor – Kasımpaşa
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
- Model
- 28%
- Fair price
- 3.60
- Bet365
- 5.00
- Edge
- +38.7%
- Price captured
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Eliteserien
Bodø/Glimt – Vålerenga IF
Vålerenga IF to win
- Model
- 12%
- Fair price
- 8.67
- Bet365
- 12.00
- Edge
- +38.5%
- Price captured
The edge is the return per unit staked if the model's probability is right: over many bets, not this one.
An edge is an average over many bets. Any single selection can and often will lose. Please gamble responsibly. Responsible gambling
Fantasy Premier League
Open the FPL dashboard →xG-driven projections for Gameweek 8.
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Highest projected
Erling Haaland5.00 projected points
Manchester City
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Best value
Bobby Thomas3.54 points per £m
4.0m
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Differential
Bobby Thomas14.2 projected over 5 rounds
9.3% owned
The projection under all three was replayed against gameweek 2 after it was played: an average miss of 1.617 points a player, against 1.842 for “predict what he has averaged so far”, over 456 players. What is not measured is named on every page in the section. How the projection works →
Built to show its work
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Shot-level xG data for every competition that has it, with coverage marked on every league.
Coverage by league -
Competition-specific models: every league is fitted on its own data.
How a league is fitted -
Prices recorded before kickoff, and never backfilled.
Every priced selection -
Historical performance published, including the losses.
The track record -
Methodology publicly documented.
The full methodology
From a shot to a price, in three steps
A positive number here is a statement about an average over many bets, not about the match in front of you. Most of football is noise, and the edge is small even when it is real.
Read the full methodology-
01
Fit the competition
Each competition gets attacking and defensive ratings from its own data.
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02
Price every scoreline
Scoring rates become scoreline and home/draw/away probabilities.
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03
Compare with the book
Remove the bookmaker's margin and compare the market's probability with the model's.