Kisvárda FC 1:1 ETO FC Győr: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Kisvárda FC Home 2.00 xG

ETO FC Győr Away 1.68 xG

11 Kisvárda FC had the better chances, but it finished level

ETO FC Győr were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Kisvárda FC's attack: 2.00 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.65).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Kisvárda FC: 25%
Draw: 26% What happened
ETO FC Győr: 49%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Kisvárda FC 1.35 2.00 +0.65

ETO FC Győr 1.90 1.68 -0.22

Kisvárda FC produced 0.65 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Kisvárda FC ETO FC Győr

Shots: 18; 10
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 10; 4
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.17

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Kisvárda FC

1.07 xG created 1.96 xGA

L 0.76 created, 1.10 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
L 0.32 created, 0.52 conceded against Kazincbarcikai SC
L 1.38 created, 2.19 conceded against ETO FC Győr
W 2.54 created, 2.17 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 0.65 created, 2.89 conceded against Újpest
L 0.79 created, 2.86 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus

ETO FC Győr

1.98 xG created 1.77 xGA

W 1.93 created, 1.73 conceded against Ferencváros TC
D 0.99 created, 1.05 conceded against Debreceni VSC
W 2.95 created, 0.42 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
W 2.19 created, 1.38 conceded against Kisvárda FC
W 2.37 created, 1.87 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
D 1.43 created, 4.16 conceded against Debreceni VSC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Kisvárda FC: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Kisvárda FC against ETO FC Győr before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	+7.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+4.7%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+4.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kisvárda FC	24.6%	25.7%	−1.1 pp	4.06
Draw	26.0%	25.7%	+0.3 pp	3.85
ETO FC Győr	49.4%	48.6%	+0.7 pp	2.03

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.3%	60.8%	+7.5 pp	1.46
Both teams not to score	31.7%	39.2%	−7.5 pp	3.15
Over 1.5 goals	87.0%	79.2%	+7.8 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.0%	20.8%	−7.8 pp	7.72
Over 2.5 goals	65.0%	58.2%	+6.8 pp	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	35.0%	41.8%	−6.8 pp	2.86

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Kisvárda FC sample: 20 matches
ETO FC Győr sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.