Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:30
Full timeNyiregyháza Spartacus 1:1 Ferencváros TC
Nyiregyháza Spartacus were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 1–1.
The model against the result
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- 39%
- Draw
- 27% What happened
- Ferencváros TC
- 34%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
2.67 xG created 1.37 xGA
- D 1.81 created, 1.83 conceded against MTK Budapest
- D 3.40 created, 1.14 conceded against Kazincbarcikai SC
- L 1.87 created, 2.37 conceded against ETO FC Győr
- W 2.86 created, 0.79 conceded against Kisvárda FC
- L 2.09 created, 1.40 conceded against MTK Budapest
- D 3.96 created, 0.68 conceded against Paksi FC
2.09 xG created 1.22 xGA
- W 2.35 created, 0.78 conceded against Paksi FC
- W 1.44 created, 0.69 conceded against Újpest
- W 1.70 created, 0.93 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
- W 2.11 created, 1.36 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
- W 1.95 created, 0.73 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
- D 3.00 created, 2.82 conceded against Újpest
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged5 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus to win | 4.00 | +54.3% | Lost |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus 2+ goals | 2.75 | +42.1% | Lost |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus to score | 1.36 | +14.3% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +10.0% | Won |
| Ferencváros TC not to score | 6.00 | +8.4% | Lost |
| Ferencváros TC at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +8.2% | Won |
| Draw | 3.90 | +5.6% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | +4.5% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | +3.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus | 38.6% | 23.2% | +15.4 pp | 2.59 |
| Draw | 27.1% | 23.8% | +3.3 pp | 3.69 |
| Ferencváros TC | 34.4% | 53.0% | −18.7 pp | 2.91 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus to score | 83.8% | 68.7% | +15.0 pp | 1.19 |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus not to score | 16.2% | 31.3% | −15.0 pp | 6.16 |
| Ferencváros TC to score | 81.9% | 84.2% | −2.3 pp | 1.22 |
| Ferencváros TC not to score | 18.1% | 15.8% | +2.3 pp | 5.53 |
| Both teams to score | 70.0% | 58.9% | +11.1 pp | 1.43 |
| Both teams not to score | 30.0% | 41.1% | −11.1 pp | 3.34 |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus 2+ goals | 51.7% | 33.7% | +17.9 pp | 1.93 |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus at most 1 goal | 48.3% | 66.3% | −17.9 pp | 2.07 |
| Ferencváros TC 2+ goals | 48.5% | 55.7% | −7.3 pp | 2.06 |
| Ferencváros TC at most 1 goal | 51.5% | 44.3% | +7.3 pp | 1.94 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.2% | 79.2% | +8.0 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12.8% | 20.8% | −8.0 pp | 7.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | 59.0% | +6.4 pp | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | 41.0% | −6.4 pp | 2.88 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus sample
- 20 matches
- Ferencváros TC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.