Paksi FC 2:4 Debreceni VSC: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Paksi FC Home 2.97 xG

Debreceni VSC Away 2.99 xG

24 The chances were evenly matched

Paksi FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Debreceni VSC won 4–2. The biggest difference was Debreceni VSC's attack: 2.99 xG against 1.87 projected (+1.12). Paksi FC produced 2.97 xG against 1.93 projected (+1.04).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Paksi FC: 39%
Draw: 25%
Debreceni VSC: 37% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Paksi FC 1.93 2.97 +1.04

Debreceni VSC 1.87 2.99 +1.12

Debreceni VSC produced 1.12 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Paksi FC Debreceni VSC

Shots: 34; 14
On target: 13; 6
Inside the box: 17; 12
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.21

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Paksi FC

1.93 xG created 2.34 xGA

L 0.78 created, 2.35 conceded against Ferencváros TC
W 2.56 created, 0.98 conceded against Debreceni VSC
W 3.05 created, 0.93 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
L 2.30 created, 3.67 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
W 2.22 created, 2.12 conceded against Újpest
D 0.68 created, 3.96 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus

Debreceni VSC

2.07 xG created 1.66 xGA

D 1.05 created, 0.99 conceded against ETO FC Győr
L 0.98 created, 2.56 conceded against Paksi FC
W 2.57 created, 1.07 conceded against Újpest
L 2.24 created, 2.09 conceded against Újpest
D 4.16 created, 1.43 conceded against ETO FC Győr
D 1.44 created, 1.79 conceded against MTK Budapest

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Paksi FC: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Paksi FC against Debreceni VSC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Debreceni VSC to win	3.40	+24.3%	Won
Both teams to score	1.40	+8.1%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.36	+3.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.10	+1.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Paksi FC	38.9%	48.6%	−9.7 pp	2.57
Draw	24.6%	25.0%	−0.4 pp	4.07
Debreceni VSC	36.6%	26.4%	+10.1 pp	2.74

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	77.2%	66.3%	+11.0 pp	1.29
Both teams not to score	22.8%	33.7%	−11.0 pp	4.39
Over 1.5 goals	92.2%	86.4%	+5.8 pp	1.08
Under 1.5 goals	7.8%	13.6%	−5.8 pp	12.81
Over 2.5 goals	75.5%	69.4%	+6.1 pp	1.32
Under 2.5 goals	24.5%	30.6%	−6.1 pp	4.09

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Paksi FC sample: 20 matches
Debreceni VSC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.