Vasas 0:1 Puskás Akadémia: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 15:30

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Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Vasas Home 1.49 xG

Puskás Akadémia Away 2.58 xG

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Vasas were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. Puskás Akadémia won 1–0. The biggest difference was Puskás Akadémia's attack: 2.58 xG against 1.37 projected (+1.21). Vasas produced 1.49 xG against 2.23 projected (−0.74).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Vasas: 57%
Draw: 23%
Puskás Akadémia: 20% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Vasas 2.23 1.49 -0.74

Puskás Akadémia 1.37 2.58 +1.21

Puskás Akadémia produced 1.21 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Vasas Puskás Akadémia

Shots: 18; 21
On target: 7; 5
Inside the box: 7; 15
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Vasas

2.82 xG created 1.11 xGA

W 2.36 created, 0.42 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
W 3.28 created, 1.80 conceded against Budapest Honvéd FC

Puskás Akadémia

2.61 xG created 1.91 xGA

W 2.07 created, 0.76 conceded against Újpest
W 2.03 created, 1.17 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
D 2.09 created, 2.98 conceded against MTK Budapest
L 2.17 created, 2.54 conceded against Kisvárda FC
W 3.63 created, 1.70 conceded against MTK Budapest
W 3.67 created, 2.30 conceded against Paksi FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Vasas against Puskás Akadémia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Vasas to win	2.15	+21.5%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.60	+15.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.50	+7.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+7.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Vasas	56.5%	43.7%	+12.9 pp	1.77
Draw	23.1%	26.1%	−3.0 pp	4.33
Puskás Akadémia	20.4%	30.3%	−9.9 pp	4.90

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	71.6%	62.5%	+9.1 pp	1.40
Both teams not to score	28.4%	37.5%	−9.1 pp	3.52
Over 1.5 goals	90.5%	79.2%	+11.3 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	9.5%	20.8%	−11.3 pp	10.55
Over 2.5 goals	72.0%	59.0%	+13.0 pp	1.39
Under 2.5 goals	28.0%	41.0%	−13.0 pp	3.57

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Vasas sample: 2 matches
Puskás Akadémia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

Vasas has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.