Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeNK Aluminij Kidričevo 0:2 NK Celje
NK Celje were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–0.
The model against the result
- NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- 27%
- Draw
- 28%
- NK Celje
- 45% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.38 xG created 1.18 xGA
- D 1.13 created, 0.85 conceded against NK Maribor
- L 0.56 created, 2.12 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- D 1.58 created, 1.01 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- W 1.28 created, 1.02 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
- W 3.53 created, 1.20 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
- L 0.22 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Koper
1.82 xG created 1.03 xGA
- W 2.45 created, 0.49 conceded against ND Primorje
- D 1.94 created, 0.96 conceded against NŠ Mura
- D 1.35 created, 1.44 conceded against NK Maribor
- W 1.59 created, 0.44 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- W 2.11 created, 1.29 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- L 1.48 created, 1.56 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Aluminij Kidričevo to win | 4.50 | +22.9% | Lost |
| NK Celje at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +19.3% | Lost |
| NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2+ goals | 3.00 | +16.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.00 | +11.5% | Lost |
| NK Aluminij Kidričevo to score | 1.40 | +6.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +5.7% | Lost |
| NK Celje not to score | 6.50 | +3.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Aluminij Kidričevo | 27.3% | 19.9% | +7.4 pp | 3.66 |
| Draw | 27.9% | 22.4% | +5.5 pp | 3.59 |
| NK Celje | 44.8% | 57.7% | −12.9 pp | 2.23 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Aluminij Kidričevo to score | 76.0% | 66.3% | +9.7 pp | 1.32 |
| NK Aluminij Kidričevo not to score | 24.0% | 33.7% | −9.7 pp | 4.16 |
| NK Celje to score | 84.1% | 85.5% | −1.4 pp | 1.19 |
| NK Celje not to score | 15.9% | 14.5% | +1.4 pp | 6.29 |
| Both teams to score | 65.4% | 57.7% | +7.8 pp | 1.53 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.6% | 42.3% | −7.8 pp | 2.89 |
| NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2+ goals | 38.9% | 31.3% | +7.6 pp | 2.57 |
| NK Aluminij Kidričevo at most 1 goal | 61.1% | 68.7% | −7.6 pp | 1.64 |
| NK Celje 2+ goals | 52.3% | 62.5% | −10.2 pp | 1.91 |
| NK Celje at most 1 goal | 47.7% | 37.5% | +10.2 pp | 2.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | 79.4% | +4.8 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.8% | 20.6% | −4.8 pp | 6.31 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 60.8% | −1.0 pp | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 39.2% | +1.0 pp | 2.49 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Aluminij Kidričevo sample
- 20 matches
- NK Celje sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.