Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 20:15
Full timeNK Maribor 3:1 NK Bravo
NK Maribor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was NK Bravo's attack: 0.97 xG against 1.40 projected (−0.43). NK Maribor produced 1.55 xG against 1.94 projected (−0.39).
The model against the result
- NK Maribor
- 49% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- NK Bravo
- 25%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
NK Bravo produced 0.43 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 8
- On target
- 6
- 6
- Inside the box
- 8
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.12
Recent form
1.28 xG created 0.91 xGA
- W 2.62 created, 1.62 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- D 0.85 created, 1.13 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- W 1.38 created, 0.35 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
- D 1.44 created, 1.35 conceded against NK Celje
- W 0.40 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Koper
- D 0.97 created, 0.46 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
2.00 xG created 1.99 xGA
- W 3.49 created, 1.44 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- W 2.44 created, 1.76 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- L 1.87 created, 2.17 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- W 1.31 created, 2.40 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
- D 1.28 created, 2.07 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
- D 1.60 created, 2.12 conceded against FC Koper
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +12.8% | Won |
| NK Bravo to win | 4.33 | +8.7% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | +8.2% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +2.8% | Won |
| Draw | 3.90 | +0.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Maribor | 49.3% | 55.4% | −6.2 pp | 2.03 |
| Draw | 25.6% | 23.5% | +2.2 pp | 3.90 |
| NK Bravo | 25.1% | 21.1% | +4.0 pp | 3.98 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 69.9% | 57.7% | +12.2 pp | 1.43 |
| Both teams not to score | 30.1% | 42.3% | −12.2 pp | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% | 79.4% | +8.7 pp | 1.13 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.9% | 20.6% | −8.7 pp | 8.41 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | 58.2% | +8.8 pp | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.0% | 41.8% | −8.8 pp | 3.03 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Maribor sample
- 20 matches
- NK Bravo sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.