NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1:0 NK Nafta Lendava 1903: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 20:15

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Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NK Olimpija Ljubljana Home 1.92 xG

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Away 2.62 xG

10 The result went against the chances

NK Olimpija Ljubljana were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was NK Nafta Lendava 1903's attack: 2.62 xG against 1.12 projected (+1.50).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Olimpija Ljubljana: 51% What happened
Draw: 28%
NK Nafta Lendava 1903: 22%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.75 1.92 +0.17

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.12 2.62 +1.50

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 produced 1.50 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Olimpija Ljubljana NK Nafta Lendava 1903

Shots: 28; 14
On target: 10; 3
Inside the box: 8; 8
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.19

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Olimpija Ljubljana

1.22 xG created 1.56 xGA

L 1.44 created, 3.49 conceded against NK Bravo
L 1.76 created, 2.44 conceded against NK Bravo
L 1.12 created, 0.30 conceded against NŠ Mura
W 2.12 created, 0.56 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
L 0.44 created, 1.59 conceded against NK Celje
D 0.46 created, 0.97 conceded against NK Maribor

NK Nafta Lendava 1903

1.37 xG created 1.56 xGA

W 0.51 created, 0.36 conceded against ND Primorje
L 1.94 created, 1.49 conceded against FC Koper
W 2.17 created, 1.87 conceded against NK Bravo
W 1.29 created, 1.94 conceded against NŠ Mura
D 1.01 created, 1.58 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
L 1.29 created, 2.11 conceded against NK Celje

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Olimpija Ljubljana against NK Nafta Lendava 1903 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 2+ goals	4.00	+24.9%	Lost
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 to score	1.62	+14.0%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+10.7%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.95	+9.9%	Lost
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 to win	5.00	+7.7%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+5.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Olimpija Ljubljana	50.9%	56.7%	−5.8 pp	1.97
Draw	27.6%	25.2%	+2.4 pp	3.62
NK Nafta Lendava 1903	21.5%	18.1%	+3.4 pp	4.64

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Olimpija Ljubljana to score	84.9%	79.4%	+5.5 pp	1.18
NK Olimpija Ljubljana not to score	15.1%	20.6%	−5.5 pp	6.61
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 to score	70.6%	57.7%	+12.9 pp	1.42
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 not to score	29.4%	42.3%	−12.9 pp	3.40
Both teams to score	61.5%	51.5%	+10.0 pp	1.63
Both teams not to score	38.5%	48.5%	−10.0 pp	2.60
NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals	53.9%	51.5%	+2.5 pp	1.85
NK Olimpija Ljubljana at most 1 goal	46.1%	48.5%	−2.5 pp	2.17
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 2+ goals	31.2%	23.4%	+7.8 pp	3.20
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 at most 1 goal	68.8%	76.6%	−7.8 pp	1.45
Over 1.5 goals	82.1%	73.1%	+8.9 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	17.9%	26.9%	−8.9 pp	5.58
Over 2.5 goals	56.4%	48.7%	+7.7 pp	1.77
Under 2.5 goals	43.6%	51.3%	−7.7 pp	2.29

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Olimpija Ljubljana sample: 20 matches
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 sample: 4 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.