NŠ Mura 0:1 FC Koper: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NŠ Mura Home 1.06 xG

FC Koper Away 1.14 xG

01 The chances were evenly matched

NŠ Mura were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. FC Koper won 1–0. The biggest difference was NŠ Mura's attack: 1.06 xG against 1.41 projected (−0.35).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NŠ Mura: 41%
Draw: 31%
FC Koper: 28% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NŠ Mura 1.41 1.06 -0.35

FC Koper 1.16 1.14 -0.02

NŠ Mura produced 0.35 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NŠ Mura FC Koper

Shots: 16; 10
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 5; 5
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NŠ Mura

1.25 xG created 1.51 xGA

L 1.35 created, 1.56 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
D 0.96 created, 1.94 conceded against NK Celje
W 0.30 created, 1.12 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
L 1.94 created, 1.29 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
L 1.24 created, 1.66 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
W 1.72 created, 1.48 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje

FC Koper

1.70 xG created 1.27 xGA

W 1.61 created, 1.74 conceded against NK Celje
W 1.49 created, 1.94 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
D 2.75 created, 1.26 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
D 1.67 created, 0.69 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
L 0.54 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Maribor
D 2.12 created, 1.60 conceded against NK Bravo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NŠ Mura: 1 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NŠ Mura against FC Koper before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NŠ Mura to win	3.20	+30.7%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+14.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+8.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NŠ Mura	40.9%	28.5%	+12.3 pp	2.45
Draw	30.9%	24.7%	+6.3 pp	3.23
FC Koper	28.2%	46.8%	−18.6 pp	3.55

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.7%	55.7%	+1.9 pp	1.73
Both teams not to score	42.3%	44.3%	−1.9 pp	2.36
Over 1.5 goals	76.8%	76.6%	+0.2 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.2%	23.4%	−0.2 pp	4.32
Over 2.5 goals	48.4%	55.3%	−6.9 pp	2.07
Under 2.5 goals	51.6%	44.7%	+6.9 pp	1.94

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NŠ Mura sample: 20 matches
FC Koper sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.