Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 13:00
7d 11h to kick-offAkhmat Grozny – Baltika Kaliningrad
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Akhmat Grozny
- 32%
- Draw
- 32%
- Baltika Kaliningrad
- 36%
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Baltika Kaliningrad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.10 | 3.11 | 2.81 |
- Total goals
- 2.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
Akhmat Grozny
- Model
- 32.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 36.8%
- Probability gap
- −4.6 pp
- Edge
- −16.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.10
- Market odds
- 2.58 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.25
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.2%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 30.2%
- Probability gap
- +2.0 pp
- Edge
- +1.4%
- Fair odds
- 3.11
- Market odds
- 3.15 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.26
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.2%
-
Baltika Kaliningrad
- Model
- 35.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 33.0%
- Probability gap
- +2.5 pp
- Edge
- +2.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.81
- Market odds
- 2.88 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.95
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.2%
Outcomes with value
Baltika Kaliningrad to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
Baltika Kaliningrad to win
Model 35.5% vs. bookmaker 33.0%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
36% Baltika Kaliningrad to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 7th
- Baltika Kaliningrad attack v Akhmat Grozny defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 12th
- Baltika Kaliningrad defence v Akhmat Grozny attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.58 vs -0.27
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.19 – 1.25
- Akhmat Grozny v Baltika Kaliningrad
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Akhmat Grozny | Baltika Kaliningrad |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.27 | (better) +0.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Baltika Kaliningrad clean sheet
- 28%
- Baltika Kaliningrad 2+ goals
- 36%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 1:2
- 9.5%
- 0:0
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Akhmat Grozny sample
- 20 matches
- Baltika Kaliningrad sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Akhmat Grozny
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Baltika Kaliningrad
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.