Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 13:00
13d 11h to kick-offKrylya Sovetov Samara – Fakel Voronezh
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Krylya Sovetov Samara
- 32%
- Draw
- 30%
- Fakel Voronezh
- 38%
| Krylya Sovetov Samara | Draw | Fakel Voronezh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.13 | 3.34 | 2.62 |
- Total goals
- 2.75
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Fakel Voronezh
38% Fakel Voronezh to win
- Projected goals
- 1.31 – 1.44
- Krylya Sovetov Samara v Fakel Voronezh
One of these two sides has never played a match the fit could read, so these are the figures an exactly average side would have produced.
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Fakel Voronezh clean sheet
- 24%
- Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 1:2
- 10.0%
- 2:1
- 9.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Krylya Sovetov Samara sample
- 20 matches
- Fakel Voronezh sample
- 0 matches
- Home xG sample · Krylya Sovetov Samara
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Fakel Voronezh
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Fakel Voronezh — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.