IF Brommapojkarna 2:0 Degerfors IF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 16:30

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Match report · Allsvenskan

IF Brommapojkarna Home 2.05 xG

Degerfors IF Away 1.08 xG

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

IF Brommapojkarna were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was IF Brommapojkarna's attack: 2.05 xG against 1.57 projected (+0.48). Degerfors IF produced 1.08 xG against 1.42 projected (−0.34).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IF Brommapojkarna: 39% What happened
Draw: 29%
Degerfors IF: 32%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1.57 2.05 +0.48

Degerfors IF 1.42 1.08 -0.34

IF Brommapojkarna produced 0.48 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IF Brommapojkarna Degerfors IF

Shots: 13; 8
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 9; 7
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.26 xG created 2.30 xGA

L 0.60 created, 1.01 conceded against IK Sirius
L 0.49 created, 3.80 conceded against IFK Göteborg
D 0.80 created, 2.32 conceded against Hammarby IF
L 1.73 created, 3.22 conceded against Malmö FF
D 0.55 created, 2.16 conceded against IK Sirius
W 3.40 created, 1.29 conceded against Örgryte IS

Degerfors IF

1.19 xG created 2.52 xGA

L 0.93 created, 3.81 conceded against Malmö FF
L 0.71 created, 3.32 conceded against Hammarby IF
L 1.18 created, 2.13 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
L 1.92 created, 2.21 conceded against IFK Göteborg
W 0.70 created, 2.53 conceded against Malmö FF
W 1.69 created, 1.13 conceded against IFK Göteborg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IF Brommapojkarna: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IF Brommapojkarna against Degerfors IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Degerfors IF to win	3.75	+20.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.70	+12.3%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	+10.0%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+5.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Brommapojkarna	39.4%	47.1%	−7.7 pp	2.54
Draw	28.6%	27.7%	+0.8 pp	3.50
Degerfors IF	32.0%	25.1%	+6.9 pp	3.12

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.0%	54.7%	+11.4 pp	1.51
Both teams not to score	34.0%	45.3%	−11.4 pp	2.95
Over 1.5 goals	84.1%	75.0%	+9.1 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.9%	25.0%	−9.1 pp	6.27
Over 2.5 goals	59.5%	51.3%	+8.1 pp	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.5%	48.7%	−8.1 pp	2.47

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IF Brommapojkarna sample: 20 matches
Degerfors IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.