IFK Göteborg 1:1 IF Elfsborg: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

IFK Göteborg Home

IF Elfsborg Away

IFK Göteborg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 1–1.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IFK Göteborg: 46%
Draw: 25% What happened
IF Elfsborg: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IFK Göteborg

2.25 xG created 1.89 xGA

L 1.81 created, 3.30 conceded against Malmö FF
W 3.80 created, 0.49 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 1.85 created, 2.97 conceded against IK Sirius
W 2.21 created, 1.92 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 2.71 created, 0.99 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.13 created, 1.69 conceded against Degerfors IF

IF Elfsborg

2.04 xG created 2.02 xGA

L 1.02 created, 2.48 conceded against Hammarby IF
L 2.21 created, 1.83 conceded against GAIS
L 2.44 created, 3.67 conceded against IK Sirius
W 0.92 created, 1.28 conceded against Malmö FF
W 3.47 created, 1.87 conceded against Mjällby AIF
W 2.19 created, 0.99 conceded against Västerås SK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IFK Göteborg: 0 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IFK Göteborg against IF Elfsborg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	+24.9%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+20.1%	Won
IFK Göteborg to win	2.63	+19.9%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+8.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IFK Göteborg	45.7%	35.9%	+9.7 pp	2.19
Draw	24.9%	27.8%	−2.8 pp	4.01
IF Elfsborg	29.4%	36.3%	−6.9 pp	3.40

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	74.4%	57.7%	+16.7 pp	1.34
Both teams not to score	25.6%	42.3%	−16.7 pp	3.90
Over 1.5 goals	90.7%	76.9%	+13.8 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	9.3%	23.1%	−13.8 pp	10.78
Over 2.5 goals	72.3%	53.7%	+18.7 pp	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	27.7%	46.3%	−18.7 pp	3.61

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IFK Göteborg sample: 20 matches
IF Elfsborg sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.