Malmö FF 0:3 Djurgårdens IF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Monday, 24/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Malmö FF Home

Djurgårdens IF Away

Malmö FF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. Djurgårdens IF won 3–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Malmö FF: 37%
Draw: 27%
Djurgårdens IF: 36% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Malmö FF

2.02 xG created 1.29 xGA

W 3.30 created, 1.81 conceded against IFK Göteborg
D 1.55 created, 1.23 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.28 created, 0.92 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 3.22 created, 1.73 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 2.53 created, 0.70 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 0.22 created, 1.35 conceded against GAIS

Djurgårdens IF

2.43 xG created 1.05 xGA

W 2.87 created, 0.89 conceded against Halmstads BK
D 0.73 created, 0.77 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 2.13 created, 1.18 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 3.93 created, 1.32 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.64 created, 0.67 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.26 created, 1.49 conceded against AIK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Malmö FF: 2 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Malmö FF against Djurgårdens IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.50	+6.2%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.60	+6.1%	Won
Malmö FF 2+ goals	2.00	+2.8%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+2.4%	Won
Malmö FF to score	1.22	+2.2%	Lost
Malmö FF to win	2.70	+0.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Malmö FF	37.3%	35.1%	+2.2 pp	2.68
Draw	26.9%	26.3%	+0.6 pp	3.72
Djurgårdens IF	35.8%	38.6%	−2.8 pp	2.79

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Malmö FF to score	83.6%	76.6%	+7.0 pp	1.20
Malmö FF not to score	16.4%	23.4%	−7.0 pp	6.11
Djurgårdens IF to score	83.0%	78.3%	+4.7 pp	1.20
Djurgårdens IF not to score	17.0%	21.7%	−4.7 pp	5.88
Both teams to score	70.8%	62.5%	+8.3 pp	1.41
Both teams not to score	29.2%	37.5%	−8.3 pp	3.42
Malmö FF 2+ goals	51.4%	46.3%	+5.1 pp	1.94
Malmö FF at most 1 goal	48.6%	53.7%	−5.1 pp	2.06
Djurgårdens IF 2+ goals	50.3%	48.5%	+1.8 pp	1.99
Djurgårdens IF at most 1 goal	49.7%	51.5%	−1.8 pp	2.01
Over 1.5 goals	87.8%	81.1%	+6.7 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.2%	18.9%	−6.7 pp	8.17
Over 2.5 goals	66.3%	59.0%	+7.3 pp	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	33.7%	41.0%	−7.3 pp	2.97

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Malmö FF sample: 20 matches
Djurgårdens IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.