Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 16:30
21d 14h to kick-offMjällby AIF – Hammarby IF
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Mjällby AIF
- 12%
- Draw
- 18%
- Hammarby IF
- 70%
| Mjällby AIF | Draw | Hammarby IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 8.01 | 5.63 | 1.43 |
- Total goals
- 4.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 79%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Hammarby IF
70% Hammarby IF to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 13th
- Hammarby IF attack v Mjällby AIF defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 11th
- Hammarby IF defence v Mjällby AIF attack
- Recent xG form
- +2.10 vs -1.22
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.27 – 2.79
- Mjällby AIF v Hammarby IF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Mjällby AIF | Hammarby IF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.59 · 10th | (better) 2.66 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 2.07 · 13th | (better) 1.11 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.48 · 12th | (better) +1.54 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.08 · 13th | (better) 2.24 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.22 | (better) +2.10 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 25% of the model's distribution.
- Hammarby IF clean sheet
- 25%
- Hammarby IF 2+ goals
- 79%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 21%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:2
- 9.4%
- 1:3
- 9.2%
- 1:1
- 6.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Mjällby AIF sample
- 20 matches
- Hammarby IF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Mjällby AIF
- 8 matches
- Away xG sample · Hammarby IF
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.