Örgryte IS 1:1 Halmstads BK: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Örgryte IS Home 2.09 xG

Halmstads BK Away 2.67 xG

11 Halmstads BK had the better chances, but it finished level

Örgryte IS were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Halmstads BK's attack: 2.67 xG against 1.51 projected (+1.16).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Örgryte IS: 46%
Draw: 26% What happened
Halmstads BK: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Örgryte IS 1.92 2.09 +0.17

Halmstads BK 1.51 2.67 +1.16

Halmstads BK produced 1.16 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Örgryte IS Halmstads BK

Shots: 20; 24
On target: 7; 7
Inside the box: 15; 15
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Örgryte IS

1.54 xG created 2.08 xGA

W 1.48 created, 1.78 conceded against BK Häcken
D 0.77 created, 0.73 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
L 0.92 created, 3.24 conceded against Västerås SK
W 2.36 created, 1.35 conceded against AIK
L 2.39 created, 1.96 conceded against AIK
L 1.29 created, 3.40 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna

Halmstads BK

1.10 xG created 2.82 xGA

L 0.89 created, 2.87 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
L 1.12 created, 1.40 conceded against BK Häcken
D 1.49 created, 2.97 conceded against GAIS
L 0.97 created, 3.10 conceded against IK Sirius
L 0.90 created, 3.81 conceded against GAIS
L 1.21 created, 2.78 conceded against BK Häcken

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Örgryte IS: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Halmstads BK 2:0 Örgryte IS 23/05/2026

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Örgryte IS against Halmstads BK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.65	+13.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.57	+12.6%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+5.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Örgryte IS	46.3%	47.0%	−0.7 pp	2.16
Draw	25.7%	25.4%	+0.3 pp	3.90
Halmstads BK	28.1%	27.6%	+0.5 pp	3.56

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	71.7%	58.9%	+12.8 pp	1.39
Both teams not to score	28.3%	41.1%	−12.8 pp	3.53
Over 1.5 goals	89.0%	79.2%	+9.8 pp	1.12
Under 1.5 goals	11.0%	20.8%	−9.8 pp	9.09
Over 2.5 goals	68.8%	57.1%	+11.6 pp	1.45
Under 2.5 goals	31.2%	42.9%	−11.6 pp	3.20

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Örgryte IS sample: 16 matches
Halmstads BK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.