Red Bull Salzburg 4:1 Austria Wien: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Red Bull Salzburg Home 1.71 xG · 13 shots

Austria Wien Away 0.76 xG · 7 shots

41 The scoreline reflected the chances

Red Bull Salzburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 63%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was Red Bull Salzburg's attack: 1.71 xG against 2.07 projected (−0.36).

Goals

13' Lee Kang-hee (o.g.) Red Bull Salzburg · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
19' Haris Tabaković Red Bull Salzburg · 0.09 xG chance 2–0
31' Bartosz Mazurek Red Bull Salzburg · 0.09 xG chance 3–0
47' Manfred Fischer Austria Wien · 0.07 xG chance 3–1
55' Yorbe Vertessen Red Bull Salzburg · 0.77 xG chance 4–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Red Bull Salzburg: 63% What happened
Draw: 23%
Austria Wien: 13%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Red Bull Salzburg 2.07 1.71 -0.36

Austria Wien 0.94 0.76 -0.18

Red Bull Salzburg produced 0.36 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Red Bull Salzburg Austria Wien

Shots: 13; 7
On target: 6; 3
Inside the box: 8; 5
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.76; 0.59
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.13
Penalties: —; —

Red Bull Salzburg's shots add up to 1.76 xG and Austria Wien's to 0.72; the published figures are 1.71 and 0.76.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 2.48 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Red Bull Salzburg
Austria Wien
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.63 xG created 1.34 xGA

D 1.47 created, 1.49 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
L 1.34 created, 1.03 conceded against LASK
L 1.84 created, 1.05 conceded against TSV Hartberg
W 4.11 created, 0.73 conceded against TSV Hartberg
D 3.52 created, 0.93 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
W 3.47 created, 2.81 conceded against WSG Tirol

Austria Wien

0.59 xG created 1.71 xGA

W 0.85 created, 0.28 conceded against TSV Hartberg
W 0.41 created, 0.81 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
L 0.74 created, 1.90 conceded against LASK
L 0.35 created, 2.80 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
L 0.21 created, 3.71 conceded against LASK
W 0.99 created, 0.79 conceded against TSV Hartberg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Red Bull Salzburg: 3 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Red Bull Salzburg against Austria Wien before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	5.50	+16.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+10.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Red Bull Salzburg	63.3%	70.4%	−7.1 pp	1.58
Draw	23.3%	17.1%	+6.2 pp	4.29
Austria Wien	13.4%	12.5%	+0.9 pp	7.47

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.7%	54.7%	+4.1 pp	1.70
Both teams not to score	41.3%	45.3%	−4.1 pp	2.42
Over 1.5 goals	84.1%	84.2%	−0.2 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.9%	15.8%	+0.2 pp	6.27
Over 2.5 goals	59.9%	65.2%	−5.2 pp	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	40.1%	34.8%	+5.2 pp	2.50

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Red Bull Salzburg sample: 20 matches
Austria Wien sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.