Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00
Full timeSK Rapid Wien 3:1 SK Sturm Graz
SK Rapid Wien were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was SK Rapid Wien's attack: 2.01 xG against 1.36 projected (+0.65). SK Sturm Graz produced 0.72 xG against 1.24 projected (−0.52).
Goals
- 7' Yusuf Demir (pen.) SK Rapid Wien · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
- 10' Belmin Beganović SK Sturm Graz · 0.07 xG chance 1–1
- 17' Marco Tilio SK Rapid Wien · 0.33 xG chance 2–1
- 86' Petter Nosakhare Dahl SK Rapid Wien · 0.04 xG chance 3–1
The model against the result
- SK Rapid Wien
- 38% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- SK Sturm Graz
- 31%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SK Rapid Wien produced 0.65 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 19
- On target
- 6
- 5
- Inside the box
- 10
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.04
- Open play xG
- 1.19
- 0.51
- Set-piece xG
- 0.06
- 0.22
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.23 for SK Rapid Wien and 0.71 for SK Sturm Graz.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 2.80 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SK Rapid Wien
- SK Sturm Graz
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.01 xG created 1.13 xGA
- L 0.81 created, 0.41 conceded against Austria Wien
- L 0.20 created, 2.75 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
- W 2.17 created, 0.50 conceded against SV Ried
- W 1.63 created, 1.29 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- W 1.77 created, 1.07 conceded against SV Ried
- W 5.49 created, 0.76 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
2.12 xG created 0.83 xGA
- W 1.79 created, 1.30 conceded against TSV Hartberg
- W 2.75 created, 0.20 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
- D 2.32 created, 0.87 conceded against WSG Tirol
- W 2.20 created, 0.22 conceded against TSV Hartberg
- W 1.53 created, 1.44 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- D 2.12 created, 0.96 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | +13.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.75 | +11.6% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +7.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Rapid Wien | 37.7% | 45.7% | −8.1 pp | 2.65 |
| Draw | 31.0% | 25.0% | +6.0 pp | 3.23 |
| SK Sturm Graz | 31.3% | 29.3% | +2.0 pp | 3.19 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 60.8% | −1.9 pp | 1.70 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.1% | 39.2% | +1.9 pp | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | 81.1% | −3.5 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.4% | 18.9% | +3.5 pp | 4.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 59.9% | −10.5 pp | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 40.1% | +10.5 pp | 1.98 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Rapid Wien sample
- 20 matches
- SK Sturm Graz sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.