Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
1. FC Köln – RB Leipzig
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- 1. FC Köln
- 38%
- Draw
- 26%
- RB Leipzig
- 36%
| 1. FC Köln | Draw | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.63 | 3.82 | 2.79 |
- Total goals
- 3.45
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 73%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model can't separate them
38% 1. FC Köln to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 6th
- 1. FC Köln attack v RB Leipzig defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 3rd
- 1. FC Köln defence v RB Leipzig attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.39 vs +0.64
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.75 – 1.70
- 1. FC Köln v RB Leipzig
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | 1. FC Köln | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.97 · 7th from 4 matches | (better) 2.22 · 5th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.98 · 10th from 4 matches | (better) 1.35 · 5th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.01 · 8th from 4 matches | (better) +0.86 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.40 · 8th from 4 matches | (better) 1.85 · 5th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.39 | (better) +0.64 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FC Köln clean sheet
- 16%
- 1. FC Köln 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 27%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.1%
- 2:1
- 9.2%
- 1:2
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FC Köln sample
- 20 matches
- RB Leipzig sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · 1. FC Köln
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · RB Leipzig
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.