Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:30
Full timeFC Augsburg 3:0 FC Schalke 04
FC Augsburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was FC Augsburg's attack: 3.52 xG against 1.77 projected (+1.75).
Goals
- 18' Michael Gregoritsch FC Augsburg · 0.95 xG chance 1–0
- 79' Anton Kade FC Augsburg · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
- 90' Rodrigo Ribeiro FC Augsburg · 0.05 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- FC Augsburg
- 42% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Schalke 04
- 31%
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Projected vs produced
FC Augsburg produced 1.75 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 24
- 11
- On target
- 13
- 5
- Inside the box
- 18
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 2.98
- 1.14
- Set-piece xG
- 0.57
- 0.40
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.52 for FC Augsburg.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 5.09 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Augsburg
- FC Schalke 04
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.84 xG created 2.01 xGA
- D 1.93 created, 0.99 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- W 1.33 created, 3.80 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- D 2.00 created, 1.11 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
- W 2.57 created, 1.35 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- W 2.59 created, 1.14 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
- L 0.61 created, 3.68 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +10.3% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | +10.0% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +5.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.60 | +0.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 42.3% | 43.1% | −0.8 pp | 2.36 |
| Draw | 26.7% | 26.3% | +0.4 pp | 3.74 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 31.0% | 30.6% | +0.4 pp | 3.23 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 70.2% | 57.7% | +12.6 pp | 1.42 |
| Both teams not to score | 29.8% | 42.3% | −12.6 pp | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.6% | 78.0% | +9.6 pp | 1.14 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12.4% | 22.0% | −9.6 pp | 8.05 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | 54.9% | +11.1 pp | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.0% | 45.1% | −11.1 pp | 2.94 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Augsburg sample
- 20 matches
- FC Schalke 04 sample
- 0 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for FC Schalke 04 — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.