Hamburger SV 3:2 SC Freiburg: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 10/05/2026 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

Hamburger SV Home 1.98 xG · 14 shots

SC Freiburg Away 0.41 xG · 5 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

14' Bakery Jatta Hamburger SV · 0.38 xG chance 1–0
16' Igor Matanović SC Freiburg · 0.31 xG chance 1–1
64' Luka Vušković Hamburger SV · 0.05 xG chance 2–1
67' Fabio Baldé Hamburger SV · 0.29 xG chance 3–1
87' Igor Matanović SC Freiburg · 0.12 xG chance 3–2

The shots behind it

Hamburger SV SC Freiburg

Shots: 14; 5
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 8; 2
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.95; 0.38
Set-piece xG: 0.10; 0.12
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.02 for Hamburger SV and 0.51 for SC Freiburg.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

19 shots · 2.55 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Hamburger SV

1.06 xG created 2.64 xGA

L 1.47 created, 6.20 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
D 1.59 created, 2.29 conceded against FC Augsburg
L 0.71 created, 3.48 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
L 0.57 created, 1.74 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
L 1.37 created, 1.45 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
W 0.62 created, 0.65 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt

SC Freiburg

1.29 xG created 1.65 xGA

W 2.04 created, 0.76 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 1.82 created, 2.80 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 0.56 created, 0.55 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
W 1.62 created, 1.58 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
L 0.76 created, 3.37 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
D 0.94 created, 0.82 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Hamburger SV: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

SC Freiburg 2:1 Hamburger SV 10/01/2026 xG 2.85 – 0.66

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.