APOEL Nicosia 6:0 AEL Limassol: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Cypriot First Division

APOEL Nicosia Home 2.45 xG

AEL Limassol Away 0.08 xG

60 The scoreline reflected the chances

APOEL Nicosia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 6–0. The biggest difference was APOEL Nicosia's attack: 2.45 xG against 1.40 projected (+1.05). AEL Limassol produced 0.08 xG against 0.86 projected (−0.78).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

APOEL Nicosia: 48% What happened
Draw: 32%
AEL Limassol: 20%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

APOEL Nicosia 1.40 2.45 +1.05

AEL Limassol 0.86 0.08 -0.78

APOEL Nicosia produced 1.05 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

APOEL Nicosia AEL Limassol

Shots: 15; 6
On target: 9; 3
Inside the box: 7; 1
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.01

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

APOEL Nicosia

0.99 xG created 1.26 xGA

D 1.54 created, 1.92 conceded against Pafos FC
W 0.65 created, 0.81 conceded against AEK Larnaca
L 1.28 created, 1.46 conceded against Aris Limassol
L 0.10 created, 1.38 conceded against Apollon Limassol
L 0.86 created, 1.57 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
L 1.51 created, 0.44 conceded against AEK Larnaca

AEL Limassol

1.59 xG created 1.56 xGA

W 1.44 created, 1.94 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
W 2.63 created, 1.17 conceded against Enosis Neon Paralimniou
D 1.84 created, 1.13 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
L 1.12 created, 0.97 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
W 0.80 created, 3.63 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas
W 1.73 created, 0.51 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

APOEL Nicosia: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on APOEL Nicosia against AEL Limassol before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
APOEL Nicosia to win	10.00	+384.8%	Won
Draw	6.50	+105.3%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.50	+93.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.20	+92.7%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.10	+7.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
APOEL Nicosia	48.5%	9.5%	+39.0 pp	2.06
Draw	31.6%	14.6%	+17.0 pp	3.17
AEL Limassol	19.9%	75.9%	−56.0 pp	5.01

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	49.0%	55.7%	−6.7 pp	2.04
Both teams not to score	51.0%	44.3%	+6.7 pp	1.96
Over 1.5 goals	70.2%	85.4%	−15.2 pp	1.42
Under 1.5 goals	29.8%	14.6%	+15.2 pp	3.36
Over 2.5 goals	39.8%	70.1%	−30.3 pp	2.51
Under 2.5 goals	60.2%	29.9%	+30.3 pp	1.66

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
APOEL Nicosia sample: 20 matches
AEL Limassol sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.