AEK Larnaca 3:1 APOEL Nicosia: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Cypriot First Division

AEK Larnaca Home 0.44 xG

APOEL Nicosia Away 1.51 xG

31 The result went against the chances

AEK Larnaca were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was AEK Larnaca's attack: 0.44 xG against 1.31 projected (−0.87). APOEL Nicosia produced 1.51 xG against 1.05 projected (+0.46).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AEK Larnaca: 41% What happened
Draw: 32%
APOEL Nicosia: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AEK Larnaca 1.31 0.44 -0.87

APOEL Nicosia 1.05 1.51 +0.46

AEK Larnaca produced 0.87 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AEK Larnaca APOEL Nicosia

Shots: 5; 16
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 3; 10
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AEK Larnaca

1.13 xG created 1.38 xGA

D 1.60 created, 1.02 conceded against Pafos FC
W 0.83 created, 0.70 conceded against Aris Limassol
L 0.81 created, 0.65 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
W 1.13 created, 1.38 conceded against Apollon Limassol
D 0.84 created, 2.60 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
D 1.56 created, 1.90 conceded against Pafos FC

APOEL Nicosia

0.82 xG created 1.28 xGA

L 0.48 created, 0.56 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
D 1.54 created, 1.92 conceded against Pafos FC
W 0.65 created, 0.81 conceded against AEK Larnaca
L 1.28 created, 1.46 conceded against Aris Limassol
L 0.10 created, 1.38 conceded against Apollon Limassol
L 0.86 created, 1.57 conceded against Omonia Nicosia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AEK Larnaca: 2 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AEK Larnaca against APOEL Nicosia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.50	+13.1%	Lost
APOEL Nicosia 2+ goals	3.75	+6.3%	Lost
AEK Larnaca at most 1 goal	1.73	+6.1%	Lost
APOEL Nicosia to win	3.90	+5.7%	Lost
APOEL Nicosia to score	1.53	+4.2%	Won
Both teams to score	1.91	+1.9%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.75	+0.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AEK Larnaca	40.6%	49.3%	−8.7 pp	2.46
Draw	32.3%	26.7%	+5.6 pp	3.10
APOEL Nicosia	27.1%	24.0%	+3.1 pp	3.69

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AEK Larnaca to score	75.8%	76.6%	−0.8 pp	1.32
AEK Larnaca not to score	24.2%	23.4%	+0.8 pp	4.12
APOEL Nicosia to score	67.9%	60.8%	+7.2 pp	1.47
APOEL Nicosia not to score	32.1%	39.2%	−7.2 pp	3.12
Both teams to score	53.4%	48.5%	+4.9 pp	1.87
Both teams not to score	46.6%	51.5%	−4.9 pp	2.15
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals	38.5%	46.3%	−7.8 pp	2.59
AEK Larnaca at most 1 goal	61.5%	53.7%	+7.8 pp	1.63
APOEL Nicosia 2+ goals	28.3%	25.0%	+3.3 pp	3.53
APOEL Nicosia at most 1 goal	71.7%	75.0%	−3.3 pp	1.40
Over 1.5 goals	72.6%	70.9%	+1.7 pp	1.38
Under 1.5 goals	27.4%	29.1%	−1.7 pp	3.65
Over 2.5 goals	42.7%	46.1%	−3.3 pp	2.34
Under 2.5 goals	57.3%	53.9%	+3.3 pp	1.75

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AEK Larnaca sample: 20 matches
APOEL Nicosia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.