Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 19:00
Full timeKarmiotissa Polemidion 0:3 Pafos FC
Pafos FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Pafos FC's attack: 2.78 xG against 1.37 projected (+1.41). Karmiotissa Polemidion produced 2.20 xG against 1.15 projected (+1.05).
The model against the result
- Karmiotissa Polemidion
- 29%
- Draw
- 31%
- Pafos FC
- 40% What happened
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Projected vs produced
Pafos FC produced 1.41 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 19
- On target
- 6
- 6
- Inside the box
- 9
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.15
Recent form
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
1.50 xG created 1.42 xGA
- D 1.02 created, 1.60 conceded against AEK Larnaca
- D 1.92 created, 1.54 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
- L 0.93 created, 0.89 conceded against Apollon Limassol
- L 1.91 created, 2.05 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
- W 1.34 created, 0.85 conceded against Aris Limassol
- D 1.90 created, 1.56 conceded against AEK Larnaca
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged0 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karmiotissa Polemidion to win | 12.00 | +216.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 6.25 | +118.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | +38.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +31.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | +25.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karmiotissa Polemidion | 28.8% | 7.8% | +20.9 pp | 3.48 |
| Draw | 31.3% | 15.1% | +16.2 pp | 3.20 |
| Pafos FC | 40.0% | 77.1% | −37.1 pp | 2.50 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 44.3% | +12.7 pp | 1.76 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.0% | 55.7% | −12.7 pp | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | 79.4% | −3.4 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 20.6% | +3.4 pp | 4.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 60.8% | −13.5 pp | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 39.2% | +13.5 pp | 1.90 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Karmiotissa Polemidion sample
- 0 matches
- Pafos FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Karmiotissa Polemidion — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.