Omonia Nicosia 0:0 Apollon Limassol: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Cypriot First Division

Omonia Nicosia Home 1.30 xG

Apollon Limassol Away 0.42 xG

00 Omonia Nicosia had the better chances, but it finished level

Omonia Nicosia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Apollon Limassol's attack: 0.42 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.63).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Omonia Nicosia: 47%
Draw: 30% What happened
Apollon Limassol: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Omonia Nicosia 1.53 1.30 -0.23

Apollon Limassol 1.05 0.42 -0.63

Apollon Limassol produced 0.63 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Omonia Nicosia Apollon Limassol

Shots: 15; 9
On target: 7; 1
Inside the box: 9; 2
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.05

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Omonia Nicosia

2.41 xG created 1.08 xGA

W 3.08 created, 0.64 conceded against Aris Limassol
W 2.05 created, 1.91 conceded against Pafos FC
D 2.60 created, 0.84 conceded against AEK Larnaca
W 1.57 created, 0.86 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
D 2.96 created, 0.95 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
W 2.20 created, 1.28 conceded against Aris Limassol

Apollon Limassol

1.45 xG created 1.31 xGA

W 0.89 created, 0.93 conceded against Pafos FC
L 1.38 created, 1.13 conceded against AEK Larnaca
W 1.38 created, 0.10 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
W 1.14 created, 2.30 conceded against Aris Limassol
D 1.60 created, 2.39 conceded against Aris Limassol
W 2.33 created, 1.02 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Omonia Nicosia: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Omonia Nicosia against Apollon Limassol before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.60	+7.7%	Won
Omonia Nicosia at most 1 goal	2.00	+6.4%	Won
Apollon Limassol to win	4.50	+4.1%	Lost
Apollon Limassol to score	1.50	+2.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+1.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Omonia Nicosia	47.0%	54.5%	−7.6 pp	2.13
Draw	29.9%	25.3%	+4.7 pp	3.34
Apollon Limassol	23.1%	20.2%	+2.9 pp	4.32

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Omonia Nicosia to score	81.1%	81.4%	−0.3 pp	1.23
Omonia Nicosia not to score	18.9%	18.6%	+0.3 pp	5.29
Apollon Limassol to score	68.1%	62.5%	+5.6 pp	1.47
Apollon Limassol not to score	31.9%	37.5%	−5.6 pp	3.13
Both teams to score	57.0%	53.7%	+3.3 pp	1.76
Both teams not to score	43.0%	46.3%	−3.3 pp	2.32
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals	46.8%	53.7%	−6.9 pp	2.14
Omonia Nicosia at most 1 goal	53.2%	46.3%	+6.9 pp	1.88
Apollon Limassol 2+ goals	28.5%	27.7%	+0.8 pp	3.51
Apollon Limassol at most 1 goal	71.5%	72.3%	−0.8 pp	1.40
Over 1.5 goals	77.3%	75.0%	+2.3 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.7%	25.0%	−2.3 pp	4.41
Over 2.5 goals	49.1%	52.6%	−3.6 pp	2.04
Under 2.5 goals	50.9%	47.4%	+3.6 pp	1.96

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Omonia Nicosia sample: 20 matches
Apollon Limassol sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.