Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:00
Full timeBaník Ostrava 1:0 SK Sigma Olomouc
SK Sigma Olomouc were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. Baník Ostrava won 1–0. The biggest difference was Baník Ostrava's attack: 0.24 xG against 1.36 projected (−1.12). SK Sigma Olomouc produced 0.63 xG against 1.39 projected (−0.76).
Goals
- 45' Jiri Micek Baník Ostrava · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Baník Ostrava
- 34% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- SK Sigma Olomouc
- 36%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Baník Ostrava produced 1.12 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 5
- 9
- On target
- 3
- 2
- Inside the box
- 3
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.11
- 0.36
- Set-piece xG
- 0.11
- 0.28
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.22 for Baník Ostrava and 0.62 for SK Sigma Olomouc.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
14 shots · 0.86 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Baník Ostrava
- SK Sigma Olomouc
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.51 xG created 1.22 xGA
1.54 xG created 1.08 xGA
- W 2.06 created, 0.38 conceded against MFK Karviná
- L 0.37 created, 1.34 conceded against FK Jablonec
- D 2.48 created, 1.17 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
- W 0.83 created, 1.40 conceded against SK Líšeň
- W 2.02 created, 1.04 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- W 1.48 created, 1.15 conceded against FK Pardubice
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +2.8% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +0.2% | Lost |
| SK Sigma Olomouc to score | 1.29 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baník Ostrava | 34.2% | 37.9% | −3.7 pp | 2.92 |
| Draw | 30.1% | 27.5% | +2.6 pp | 3.32 |
| SK Sigma Olomouc | 35.7% | 34.6% | +1.1 pp | 2.80 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baník Ostrava to score | 77.0% | 75.0% | +2.0 pp | 1.30 |
| Baník Ostrava not to score | 23.0% | 25.0% | −2.0 pp | 4.35 |
| SK Sigma Olomouc to score | 77.8% | 73.1% | +4.7 pp | 1.29 |
| SK Sigma Olomouc not to score | 22.2% | 26.9% | −4.7 pp | 4.51 |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 55.7% | +5.9 pp | 1.62 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.3% | 44.3% | −5.9 pp | 2.61 |
| Baník Ostrava 2+ goals | 40.3% | 42.3% | −2.0 pp | 2.48 |
| Baník Ostrava at most 1 goal | 59.7% | 57.7% | +2.0 pp | 1.68 |
| SK Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals | 41.5% | 39.2% | +2.2 pp | 2.41 |
| SK Sigma Olomouc at most 1 goal | 58.5% | 60.8% | −2.2 pp | 1.71 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | 75.0% | +5.1 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.9% | 25.0% | −5.1 pp | 5.03 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | 52.6% | +0.6 pp | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 47.4% | −0.6 pp | 2.14 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Baník Ostrava sample
- 20 matches
- SK Sigma Olomouc sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.