FK Pardubice 1:2 SK Líšeň: xG & match report · Czech First League

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Czech First League

FK Pardubice Home 1.81 xG · 18 shots

SK Líšeň Away 0.80 xG · 10 shots

12 The result went against the chances

FK Pardubice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. SK Líšeň won 2–1. The biggest difference was SK Líšeň's attack: 0.80 xG against 1.09 projected (−0.29). FK Pardubice produced 1.81 xG against 1.55 projected (+0.26).

Goals

16' Tobias Boledovic FK Pardubice · 0.31 xG chance 1–0
72' Alexis Alegue SK Líšeň · 0.11 xG chance 1–1
83' Albert Labík SK Líšeň · 0.18 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Pardubice: 47%
Draw: 30%
SK Líšeň: 24% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Pardubice 1.55 1.81 +0.26

SK Líšeň 1.09 0.80 -0.29

SK Líšeň produced 0.29 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Pardubice SK Líšeň

Shots: 18; 10
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 12; 8
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.08
Open play xG: 1.61; 0.66
Set-piece xG: 0.28; 0.14
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.89 for FK Pardubice.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 2.69 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FK Pardubice
SK Líšeň
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Pardubice

1.36 xG created 1.64 xGA

L 1.89 created, 3.06 conceded against MFK Karviná
L 0.31 created, 1.11 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
L 2.75 created, 0.61 conceded against FK Jablonec
L 0.66 created, 2.86 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
D 1.37 created, 0.75 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
L 1.15 created, 1.48 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc

SK Líšeň

1.30 xG created 1.51 xGA

L 1.57 created, 2.17 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
D 1.42 created, 0.53 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
L 1.40 created, 0.83 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
L 0.91 created, 2.23 conceded against Baník Ostrava
L 1.21 created, 1.78 conceded against AC Sparta Praha

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Pardubice sample: 20 matches
SK Líšeň sample: 5 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

SK Líšeň has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.