FK Teplice 0:2 FC Zbrojovka Brno: xG & match report · Czech First League

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Czech First League

FK Teplice Home 0.82 xG · 15 shots

FC Zbrojovka Brno Away 0.69 xG · 7 shots

02 The chances were evenly matched

FK Teplice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. FC Zbrojovka Brno won 2–0. The biggest difference was FK Teplice's attack: 0.82 xG against 1.61 projected (−0.79). FC Zbrojovka Brno produced 0.69 xG against 1.30 projected (−0.61).

Goals

42' Antonin Vanicek FC Zbrojovka Brno · 0.31 xG chance 0–1
72' Antonin Vanicek FC Zbrojovka Brno · 0.12 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Teplice: 43%
Draw: 29%
FC Zbrojovka Brno: 28% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Teplice 1.61 0.82 -0.79

FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.30 0.69 -0.61

FK Teplice produced 0.79 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Teplice FC Zbrojovka Brno

Shots: 15; 7
On target: 2; 3
Inside the box: 8; 5
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.73; 0.49
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.20
Penalties: —; —

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 1.51 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FK Teplice
FC Zbrojovka Brno
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Teplice

1.49 xG created 1.72 xGA

W 1.03 created, 0.89 conceded against Dukla Praha
W 2.26 created, 3.23 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
W 2.43 created, 0.73 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
W 0.90 created, 0.88 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
D 1.47 created, 2.49 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
L 0.82 created, 2.12 conceded against AC Sparta Praha

FC Zbrojovka Brno

1.13 xG created 1.67 xGA

W 2.21 created, 1.45 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
D 0.65 created, 0.80 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
L 0.52 created, 2.75 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Teplice against FC Zbrojovka Brno before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+0.9%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	+0.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Teplice	43.1%	42.1%	+0.9 pp	2.32
Draw	28.6%	26.6%	+2.0 pp	3.50
FC Zbrojovka Brno	28.3%	31.2%	−2.9 pp	3.53

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 1.5 goals	82.6%	75.7%	+6.9 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.4%	24.3%	−6.9 pp	5.73
Over 2.5 goals	57.2%	52.7%	+4.5 pp	1.75
Under 2.5 goals	42.8%	47.3%	−4.5 pp	2.34

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Teplice sample: 20 matches
FC Zbrojovka Brno sample: 3 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Warnings

FC Zbrojovka Brno has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.