Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:00
Full timeSK Slavia Praha 2:2 Bohemians Praha 1905
SK Slavia Praha were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 70%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was SK Slavia Praha's attack: 2.74 xG against 2.24 projected (+0.50).
Goals
- 23' Mubarak Suleiman SK Slavia Praha · 0.33 xG chance 1–0
- 30' Ladislav Almási Bohemians Praha 1905 · 0.19 xG chance 1–1
- 75' Tomáš Chorý SK Slavia Praha · 0.21 xG chance 2–1
- 89' Roman Kvet Bohemians Praha 1905 · 0.36 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- SK Slavia Praha
- 70%
- Draw
- 20% What happened
- Bohemians Praha 1905
- 9%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SK Slavia Praha produced 0.50 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 26
- 5
- On target
- 7
- 2
- Inside the box
- 19
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 2.16
- 0.82
- Set-piece xG
- 0.70
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.93 for SK Slavia Praha and 0.81 for Bohemians Praha 1905.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
31 shots · 3.68 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SK Slavia Praha
- Bohemians Praha 1905
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.28 xG created 0.96 xGA
- L 1.76 created, 2.08 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- W 2.48 created, 0.23 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
- W 3.73 created, 0.62 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- W 2.19 created, 0.70 conceded against Baník Ostrava
- W 2.86 created, 0.66 conceded against FK Pardubice
- D 0.67 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
1.55 xG created 1.50 xGA
- W 2.15 created, 0.36 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
- L 1.60 created, 1.94 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- W 2.17 created, 2.58 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- L 0.73 created, 2.43 conceded against FK Teplice
- D 0.68 created, 0.83 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- W 1.94 created, 0.84 conceded against FC Zlín
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians Praha 1905 2+ goals | 6.50 | +21.5% | Won |
| Draw | 5.75 | +17.5% | Won |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 to score | 2.00 | +17.3% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | +14.8% | Won |
| SK Slavia Praha at most 1 goal | 3.25 | +4.2% | Lost |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 to win | 11.00 | +2.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Slavia Praha | 70.3% | 75.9% | −5.6 pp | 1.42 |
| Draw | 20.4% | 15.8% | +4.6 pp | 4.89 |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 | 9.3% | 8.3% | +1.0 pp | 10.74 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Slavia Praha to score | 91.2% | 90.4% | +0.8 pp | 1.10 |
| SK Slavia Praha not to score | 8.8% | 9.6% | −0.8 pp | 11.34 |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 to score | 58.6% | 46.3% | +12.3 pp | 1.71 |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 not to score | 41.4% | 53.7% | −12.3 pp | 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 44.3% | +10.4 pp | 1.83 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.3% | 55.7% | −10.4 pp | 2.21 |
| SK Slavia Praha 2+ goals | 67.9% | 70.9% | −3.0 pp | 1.47 |
| SK Slavia Praha at most 1 goal | 32.1% | 29.1% | +3.0 pp | 3.12 |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 2+ goals | 18.7% | 14.6% | +4.1 pp | 5.35 |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 at most 1 goal | 81.3% | 85.4% | −4.1 pp | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 82.8% | +1.6 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.6% | 17.2% | −1.6 pp | 6.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 62.5% | −1.8 pp | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.3% | 37.5% | +1.8 pp | 2.55 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Slavia Praha sample
- 20 matches
- Bohemians Praha 1905 sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.