Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:30
13d 14h to kick-offGKS Katowice – Pogoń Szczecin
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- GKS Katowice
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- Pogoń Szczecin
- 29%
| GKS Katowice | Draw | Pogoń Szczecin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.29 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
- Total goals
- 3.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans GKS Katowice
44% GKS Katowice to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 11th
- GKS Katowice attack v Pogoń Szczecin defence
- Defence
- 15th vs 11th
- GKS Katowice defence v Pogoń Szczecin attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.22 vs +0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.69 – 1.37
- GKS Katowice v Pogoń Szczecin
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | GKS Katowice | Pogoń Szczecin |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.77 · 3rd | 1.48 · 11th |
| xGA / match | 2.00 · 16th | (better) 1.38 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.23 · 14th | (better) +0.10 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.30 · 9th | (better) 1.48 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.22 | (better) +0.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- GKS Katowice clean sheet
- 23%
- GKS Katowice 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.2%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
- 1:2
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- GKS Katowice sample
- 20 matches
- Pogoń Szczecin sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · GKS Katowice
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Pogoń Szczecin
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.