Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 17:30
Full timeGKS Katowice 5:0 Wisła Płock
GKS Katowice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was GKS Katowice's attack: 2.90 xG against 1.49 projected (+1.41). Wisła Płock produced 1.73 xG against 1.23 projected (+0.50).
Goals
- 16' Eman Marković GKS Katowice · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
- 33' Arkadiusz Jędrych (pen.) GKS Katowice · 0.82 xG chance 2–0
- 73' Pau Resta GKS Katowice · 0.04 xG chance 3–0
- 81' Ilia Shkurin GKS Katowice · 0.44 xG chance 4–0
- 90' Jakub Kokosinski GKS Katowice · 0.20 xG chance 5–0
The model against the result
- GKS Katowice
- 41% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Wisła Płock
- 29%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
GKS Katowice produced 1.41 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 22
- On target
- 7
- 6
- Inside the box
- 14
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.19
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.86
- 1.02
- Set-piece xG
- 0.22
- 0.76
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.73 for Wisła Płock.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
37 shots · 4.68 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- GKS Katowice
- Wisła Płock
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.17 xG created 1.75 xGA
- D 0.96 created, 1.03 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- D 1.07 created, 2.08 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- D 0.87 created, 1.00 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- L 1.20 created, 2.76 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- W 1.80 created, 0.73 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- L 1.10 created, 2.92 conceded against Motor Lublin
1.58 xG created 1.49 xGA
- L 1.63 created, 1.64 conceded against Motor Lublin
- L 0.73 created, 1.01 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- D 3.24 created, 1.23 conceded against Lech Poznań
- W 0.86 created, 1.46 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- D 1.54 created, 1.79 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 1.49 created, 1.78 conceded against Wisła Kraków
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.60 | +7.7% | Lost |
| Wisła Płock to win | 3.60 | +3.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | +1.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKS Katowice | 41.4% | 49.3% | −7.9 pp | 2.41 |
| Draw | 29.9% | 25.3% | +4.6 pp | 3.34 |
| Wisła Płock | 28.7% | 25.3% | +3.3 pp | 3.49 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 57.7% | +3.2 pp | 1.64 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.2% | 42.3% | −3.2 pp | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | 78.3% | +1.5 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.2% | 21.7% | −1.5 pp | 4.94 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 56.3% | −3.7 pp | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 43.7% | +3.7 pp | 2.11 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- GKS Katowice sample
- 20 matches
- Wisła Płock sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.