Radomiak Radom 2:1 Cracovia: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 12:15

Full time

Match report · Ekstraklasa

Radomiak Radom Home 1.89 xG · 20 shots

Cracovia Away 2.02 xG · 18 shots

21 The chances were evenly matched

Cracovia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. Radomiak Radom won 2–1. The biggest difference was Radomiak Radom's attack: 1.89 xG against 1.03 projected (+0.86). Cracovia produced 2.02 xG against 1.43 projected (+0.59).

Goals

47' Martin Minchev Cracovia · 0.04 xG chance 0–1
55' Rafał Wolski Radomiak Radom · 0.04 xG chance 1–1
64' Rafał Wolski (pen.) Radomiak Radom · 0.82 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Radomiak Radom: 25% What happened
Draw: 31%
Cracovia: 44%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Radomiak Radom 1.03 1.89 +0.86

Cracovia 1.43 2.02 +0.59

Radomiak Radom produced 0.86 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Radomiak Radom Cracovia

Shots: 20; 18
On target: 5; 7
Inside the box: 12; 13
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.59; 1.27
Set-piece xG: 0.55; 0.74
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.10 for Radomiak Radom and 2.02 for Cracovia.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

38 shots · 3.97 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Radomiak Radom
Cracovia
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Radomiak Radom

1.11 xG created 2.27 xGA

L 0.86 created, 4.56 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
W 1.67 created, 2.00 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
L 0.73 created, 1.80 conceded against GKS Katowice
L 2.24 created, 2.28 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
L 0.38 created, 1.68 conceded against Legia Warszawa
D 0.78 created, 1.27 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin

Cracovia

1.62 xG created 0.92 xGA

D 1.41 created, 0.25 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
D 0.88 created, 0.79 conceded against Lech Poznań
L 1.15 created, 0.93 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
D 1.48 created, 0.75 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
W 2.74 created, 0.85 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
W 2.08 created, 1.98 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Radomiak Radom: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Radomiak Radom against Cracovia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	1.95	+6.1%	Lost
Radomiak Radom not to score	3.25	+6.1%	Lost
Radomiak Radom at most 1 goal	1.44	+4.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Radomiak Radom	24.5%	31.3%	−6.8 pp	4.08
Draw	31.1%	28.4%	+2.7 pp	3.22
Cracovia	44.4%	40.3%	+4.1 pp	2.25

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Radomiak Radom to score	67.4%	70.9%	−3.5 pp	1.48
Radomiak Radom not to score	32.6%	29.1%	+3.5 pp	3.06
Cracovia to score	78.6%	75.0%	+3.6 pp	1.27
Cracovia not to score	21.4%	25.0%	−3.6 pp	4.67
Both teams to score	54.8%	54.7%	+0.1 pp	1.83
Both teams not to score	45.2%	45.3%	−0.1 pp	2.21
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals	27.7%	35.5%	−7.7 pp	3.60
Radomiak Radom at most 1 goal	72.3%	64.5%	+7.7 pp	1.38
Cracovia 2+ goals	42.9%	42.3%	+0.6 pp	2.33
Cracovia at most 1 goal	57.1%	57.7%	−0.6 pp	1.75
Over 1.5 goals	74.7%	75.0%	−0.3 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.3%	25.0%	+0.3 pp	3.96
Over 2.5 goals	45.6%	51.3%	−5.7 pp	2.19
Under 2.5 goals	54.4%	48.7%	+5.7 pp	1.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Radomiak Radom sample: 20 matches
Cracovia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.