Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:30
Full timeWisła Kraków 2:0 Wieczysta Kraków
Wisła Kraków were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 2–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 54' Jordi Sánchez Wisła Kraków · 0.46 xG chance 1–0
- 80' Jérémy Guillemenot Wisła Kraków · 0.01 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Wisła Kraków
- 49% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Wieczysta Kraków
- 24%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 15
- On target
- 7
- 4
- Inside the box
- 7
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 1.22
- 1.18
- Set-piece xG
- 0.40
- 0.22
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.64 for Wisła Kraków and 1.39 for Wieczysta Kraków.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 3.02 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Wisła Kraków
- Wieczysta Kraków
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.14 xG created 1.28 xGA
1.66 xG created 1.65 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.80 | +2.5% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | +0.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Kraków | 48.8% | 52.4% | −3.6 pp | 2.05 |
| Draw | 27.0% | 23.8% | +3.2 pp | 3.71 |
| Wieczysta Kraków | 24.2% | 23.8% | +0.4 pp | 4.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Kraków to score | 85.9% | 85.4% | +0.5 pp | 1.16 |
| Wisła Kraków not to score | 14.1% | 14.6% | −0.5 pp | 7.09 |
| Wieczysta Kraków to score | 74.9% | 70.9% | +4.0 pp | 1.33 |
| Wieczysta Kraków not to score | 25.1% | 29.1% | −4.0 pp | 3.99 |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | 62.5% | +3.3 pp | 1.52 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.2% | 37.5% | −3.3 pp | 2.93 |
| Wisła Kraków 2+ goals | 55.9% | 58.9% | −3.0 pp | 1.79 |
| Wisła Kraków at most 1 goal | 44.1% | 41.1% | +3.0 pp | 2.27 |
| Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals | 37.1% | 37.5% | −0.4 pp | 2.70 |
| Wieczysta Kraków at most 1 goal | 62.9% | 62.5% | +0.4 pp | 1.59 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% | 83.2% | +1.9 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.9% | 16.8% | −1.9 pp | 6.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | 64.3% | −2.9 pp | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.6% | 35.7% | +2.9 pp | 2.59 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 2 warningsShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wisła Kraków sample
- 5 matches
- Wieczysta Kraków sample
- 4 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Wisła Kraków has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
- Wieczysta Kraków has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.