Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00
Full timeIK Start 4:1 KFUM Oslo
IK Start were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was IK Start's attack: 3.43 xG against 1.38 projected (+2.05). KFUM Oslo produced 1.65 xG against 0.97 projected (+0.68).
Goals
- 3' Altin Ujkani IK Start · 0.01 xG chance 1–0
- 27' Bilal Njie (pen.) KFUM Oslo · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
- 44' Erlend Dahl Reitan IK Start · 0.05 xG chance 2–1
- 81' Hakon Lorentzen IK Start · 0.01 xG chance 3–1
- 90' Deni Dashaev IK Start · 0.82 xG chance 4–1
The model against the result
- IK Start
- 45% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- KFUM Oslo
- 23%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
IK Start produced 2.05 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 9
- On target
- 7
- 1
- Inside the box
- 13
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.19
- 0.19
- Open play xG
- 2.14
- 0.67
- Set-piece xG
- 1.47
- 0.19
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.55 for IK Start and 0.86 for KFUM Oslo.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 5.29 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- IK Start
- KFUM Oslo
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.40 xG created 1.44 xGA
- L 0.72 created, 1.59 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
- L 1.29 created, 1.83 conceded against SK Brann
- L 0.67 created, 1.57 conceded against Rosenborg BK
- W 1.47 created, 0.54 conceded against Kristiansund BK
- L 2.48 created, 1.57 conceded against Viking FK
- L 1.77 created, 1.53 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
1.10 xG created 1.98 xGA
- L 1.02 created, 1.76 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
- L 0.46 created, 1.24 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
- L 0.69 created, 3.54 conceded against Molde FK
- W 1.23 created, 1.22 conceded against Kristiansund BK
- W 2.25 created, 1.33 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
- D 0.92 created, 2.80 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +26.4% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.00 | +23.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +14.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IK Start | 44.9% | 46.6% | −1.7 pp | 2.23 |
| Draw | 31.8% | 25.9% | +5.9 pp | 3.14 |
| KFUM Oslo | 23.3% | 27.5% | −4.2 pp | 4.29 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | 76.9% | −4.4 pp | 1.38 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27.5% | 23.1% | +4.4 pp | 3.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 53.7% | −11.1 pp | 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 46.3% | +11.1 pp | 1.74 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- IK Start sample
- 17 matches
- KFUM Oslo sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.