Kristiansund BK 2:0 Tromsø IL: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 19:15

Full time

Match report · Eliteserien

Kristiansund BK Home 0.65 xG · 9 shots

Tromsø IL Away 0.35 xG · 8 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

Tromsø IL were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Kristiansund BK won 2–0. The biggest difference was Tromsø IL's attack: 0.35 xG against 1.24 projected (−0.89). Kristiansund BK produced 0.65 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.40).

Goals

14' Leander Alvheim Kristiansund BK · 0.13 xG chance 1–0
77' Leander Alvheim Kristiansund BK · 0.20 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Kristiansund BK: 28% What happened
Draw: 33%
Tromsø IL: 39%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Kristiansund BK 1.05 0.65 -0.40

Tromsø IL 1.24 0.35 -0.89

Tromsø IL produced 0.89 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Kristiansund BK Tromsø IL

Shots: 9; 8
On target: 2; 3
Inside the box: 7; 4
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.04
Open play xG: 0.55; 0.19
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.16
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.65 for Kristiansund BK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

17 shots · 0.97 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Kristiansund BK
Tromsø IL
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Kristiansund BK

0.92 xG created 1.46 xGA

D 0.71 created, 0.97 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
L 0.54 created, 1.47 conceded against IK Start
L 1.22 created, 1.23 conceded against KFUM Oslo
W 0.66 created, 3.21 conceded against Molde FK
L 1.28 created, 1.15 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
D 1.13 created, 0.71 conceded against HamKam

Tromsø IL

1.43 xG created 1.27 xGA

D 0.84 created, 0.36 conceded against KFUM Oslo
W 1.95 created, 0.77 conceded against Vålerenga IF
W 1.90 created, 0.80 conceded against HamKam
W 1.86 created, 2.69 conceded against Aalesunds FK
L 0.65 created, 2.50 conceded against Molde FK
D 1.38 created, 0.51 conceded against Sarpsborg 08

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Kristiansund BK: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Kristiansund BK against Tromsø IL before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.90	+29.0%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.08	+22.9%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	4.00	+15.5%	Lost
Kristiansund BK to win	4.00	+13.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kristiansund BK	28.4%	23.2%	+5.2 pp	3.52
Draw	33.1%	23.8%	+9.3 pp	3.02
Tromsø IL	38.5%	53.0%	−14.5 pp	2.60

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.3%	53.3%	−1.1 pp	1.91
Both teams not to score	47.7%	46.7%	+1.1 pp	2.09
Over 1.5 goals	71.1%	76.6%	−5.5 pp	1.41
Under 1.5 goals	28.9%	23.4%	+5.5 pp	3.46
Over 2.5 goals	40.8%	54.6%	−13.8 pp	2.45
Under 2.5 goals	59.2%	45.4%	+13.8 pp	1.69

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Kristiansund BK sample: 20 matches
Tromsø IL sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.