Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 19:15
Full timeLillestrøm SK 1:4 Fredrikstad FK
Lillestrøm SK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. Fredrikstad FK won 4–1. The biggest difference was Fredrikstad FK's attack: 3.11 xG against 0.90 projected (+2.21). Lillestrøm SK produced 2.34 xG against 1.46 projected (+0.88).
Goals
- 8' Solomon Owusu Fredrikstad FK · 0.01 xG chance 0–1
- 18' Max Nilsson (pen.) Fredrikstad FK · 0.82 xG chance 0–2
- 37' Fredrik Gulbrandsen (pen.) Lillestrøm SK · 0.82 xG chance 1–2
- 65' Benjamin Faraas Fredrikstad FK · 0.06 xG chance 1–3
- 79' Benjamin Faraas Fredrikstad FK · 0.96 xG chance 1–4
The model against the result
- Lillestrøm SK
- 49%
- Draw
- 31%
- Fredrikstad FK
- 20% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Fredrikstad FK produced 2.21 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 13
- On target
- 4
- 9
- Inside the box
- 12
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.24
- Open play xG
- 0.85
- 1.58
- Set-piece xG
- 0.55
- 0.77
- Penalties
- 1
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.39 for Lillestrøm SK and 2.29 for Fredrikstad FK.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 5.39 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Lillestrøm SK
- Fredrikstad FK
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.57 xG created 1.34 xGA
0.99 xG created 1.69 xGA
- L 1.17 created, 1.24 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
- L 0.12 created, 2.24 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
- L 0.54 created, 2.54 conceded against Rosenborg BK
- W 1.44 created, 1.05 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
- W 1.53 created, 1.77 conceded against IK Start
- W 1.15 created, 1.28 conceded against Kristiansund BK
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +26.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +23.9% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +20.3% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.10 | +0.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrøm SK | 48.9% | 54.0% | −5.0 pp | 2.04 |
| Draw | 30.8% | 24.2% | +6.6 pp | 3.24 |
| Fredrikstad FK | 20.2% | 21.8% | −1.6 pp | 4.95 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 55.7% | −4.5 pp | 1.95 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.8% | 44.3% | +4.5 pp | 2.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | 79.2% | −6.7 pp | 1.38 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27.5% | 20.8% | +6.7 pp | 3.63 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | 57.1% | −14.5 pp | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 42.9% | +14.5 pp | 1.74 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lillestrøm SK sample
- 17 matches
- Fredrikstad FK sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.