Sandefjord Fotball 0:0 SK Brann: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

Sandefjord Fotball Home 0.97 xG · 20 shots

SK Brann Away 0.74 xG · 13 shots

00 The chances were evenly matched

SK Brann were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was SK Brann's attack: 0.74 xG against 1.30 projected (−0.56). Sandefjord Fotball produced 0.97 xG against 1.26 projected (−0.29).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sandefjord Fotball: 33%
Draw: 31% What happened
SK Brann: 35%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sandefjord Fotball 1.26 0.97 -0.29

SK Brann 1.30 0.74 -0.56

SK Brann produced 0.56 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sandefjord Fotball SK Brann

Shots: 20; 13
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 11; 9
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.06
Open play xG: 0.77; 0.40
Set-piece xG: 0.21; 0.37
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.98 for Sandefjord Fotball and 0.74 for SK Brann.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 1.75 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Sandefjord Fotball
SK Brann
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sandefjord Fotball

1.00 xG created 2.03 xGA

D 0.83 created, 1.70 conceded against HamKam
L 0.38 created, 2.16 conceded against Viking FK
L 0.69 created, 2.18 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
L 1.05 created, 1.44 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
L 1.33 created, 2.25 conceded against KFUM Oslo
W 1.69 created, 2.43 conceded against Sarpsborg 08

SK Brann

1.47 xG created 1.38 xGA

L 0.76 created, 1.10 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
W 1.83 created, 1.29 conceded against IK Start
W 0.71 created, 1.36 conceded against Molde FK
L 2.37 created, 2.34 conceded against Vålerenga IF
W 0.78 created, 1.93 conceded against Rosenborg BK
W 2.38 created, 0.24 conceded against HamKam

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Sandefjord Fotball: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sandefjord Fotball against SK Brann before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+24.3%	Won
Draw	3.80	+17.5%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+16.2%	Won
Both teams not to score	2.50	+4.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sandefjord Fotball	33.2%	29.4%	+3.8 pp	3.01
Draw	31.3%	24.7%	+6.6 pp	3.19
SK Brann	35.4%	45.9%	−10.4 pp	2.82

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.1%	62.5%	−4.4 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	41.9%	37.5%	+4.4 pp	2.38
Over 1.5 goals	76.8%	84.2%	−7.5 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.2%	15.8%	+7.5 pp	4.30
Over 2.5 goals	48.2%	65.2%	−16.9 pp	2.07
Under 2.5 goals	51.8%	34.8%	+16.9 pp	1.93

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sandefjord Fotball sample: 20 matches
SK Brann sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.