Sarpsborg 08 2:2 Vålerenga IF: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

Sarpsborg 08 Home 2.04 xG · 19 shots

Vålerenga IF Away 1.29 xG · 10 shots

22 Sarpsborg 08 had the better chances, but it finished level

Sarpsborg 08 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Sarpsborg 08's attack: 2.04 xG against 1.59 projected (+0.45).

Goals

28' Claus Niyukuri Sarpsborg 08 · 0.36 xG chance 1–0
80' Sondre Sörli Sarpsborg 08 · 0.07 xG chance 2–0
83' Petter Strand Vålerenga IF · 0.21 xG chance 2–1
90' Gabriel Rajkovic Vålerenga IF · 0.36 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sarpsborg 08: 44%
Draw: 29% What happened
Vålerenga IF: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sarpsborg 08 1.59 2.04 +0.45

Vålerenga IF 1.25 1.29 +0.04

Sarpsborg 08 produced 0.45 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sarpsborg 08 Vålerenga IF

Shots: 19; 10
On target: 8; 5
Inside the box: 16; 9
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.12
Open play xG: 1.34; 0.73
Set-piece xG: 0.74; 0.45
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.04 for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.21 for Vålerenga IF.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 3.26 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Sarpsborg 08
Vålerenga IF
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sarpsborg 08

1.54 xG created 1.54 xGA

D 0.97 created, 0.71 conceded against Kristiansund BK
W 1.69 created, 1.03 conceded against HamKam
D 1.09 created, 1.62 conceded against Molde FK
L 2.57 created, 2.83 conceded against Viking FK
L 2.43 created, 1.69 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
D 0.51 created, 1.38 conceded against Tromsø IL

Vålerenga IF

1.98 xG created 1.83 xGA

W 2.58 created, 1.51 conceded against Aalesunds FK
W 2.34 created, 2.37 conceded against SK Brann
L 0.69 created, 1.40 conceded against HamKam
L 1.30 created, 1.89 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
D 3.13 created, 2.08 conceded against Aalesunds FK
L 1.82 created, 1.73 conceded against Molde FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Sarpsborg 08: 0 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sarpsborg 08 against Vålerenga IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.88	+27.7%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.50	+19.5%	Lost
Draw	4.00	+15.8%	Won
Both teams not to score	2.75	+2.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sarpsborg 08	43.7%	49.2%	−5.4 pp	2.29
Draw	29.0%	23.4%	+5.6 pp	3.45
Vålerenga IF	27.3%	27.5%	−0.2 pp	3.66

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.6%	66.3%	−3.7 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.4%	33.7%	+3.7 pp	2.67
Over 1.5 goals	81.6%	85.4%	−3.8 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.4%	14.6%	+3.8 pp	5.44
Over 2.5 goals	55.6%	67.3%	−11.7 pp	1.80
Under 2.5 goals	44.4%	32.7%	+11.7 pp	2.25

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sarpsborg 08 sample: 20 matches
Vålerenga IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.