Viking FK 2:1 Aalesunds FK: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · Eliteserien

Viking FK Home 2.42 xG · 22 shots

Aalesunds FK Away 0.87 xG · 9 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Viking FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Viking FK's attack: 2.42 xG against 1.90 projected (+0.52). Aalesunds FK produced 0.87 xG against 1.19 projected (−0.32).

Goals

4' Uba Charles Aalesunds FK · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
73' Simen Kvia-Egeskog Viking FK · 0.02 xG chance 1–1
90' Simen Kvia-Egeskog Viking FK · 0.24 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Viking FK: 53% What happened
Draw: 26%
Aalesunds FK: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Viking FK 1.90 2.42 +0.52

Aalesunds FK 1.19 0.87 -0.32

Viking FK produced 0.52 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Viking FK Aalesunds FK

Shots: 22; 9
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 17; 6
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.23; 0.86
Set-piece xG: 1.16; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.42 for Viking FK and 0.87 for Aalesunds FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.25 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Viking FK
Aalesunds FK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Viking FK

1.83 xG created 1.69 xGA

W 2.16 created, 0.38 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
W 0.87 created, 1.35 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
D 1.70 created, 1.98 conceded against Aalesunds FK
W 1.57 created, 2.48 conceded against IK Start
W 2.83 created, 2.57 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
L 1.86 created, 1.37 conceded against Rosenborg BK

Aalesunds FK

1.58 xG created 2.13 xGA

D 0.61 created, 1.91 conceded against Molde FK
L 1.51 created, 2.58 conceded against Vålerenga IF
D 1.98 created, 1.70 conceded against Viking FK
L 2.69 created, 1.86 conceded against Tromsø IL
D 0.63 created, 1.59 conceded against HamKam
D 2.08 created, 3.13 conceded against Vålerenga IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Viking FK: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Aalesunds FK 1:1 Viking FK 26/07/2026 xG 1.98 – 1.70

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Viking FK against Aalesunds FK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Viking FK not to score	15.00	+92.5%	Lost
Viking FK at most 1 goal	4.00	+65.5%	Lost
Aalesunds FK to win	7.50	+56.4%	Lost
Draw	5.75	+49.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.60	+38.8%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	9.00	+34.9%	Lost
Aalesunds FK 2+ goals	3.25	+9.5%	Lost
Aalesunds FK to score	1.44	+4.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Viking FK	53.2%	71.5%	−18.3 pp	1.88
Draw	26.0%	16.2%	+9.8 pp	3.85
Aalesunds FK	20.9%	12.4%	+8.5 pp	4.80

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Viking FK to score	87.2%	93.6%	−6.4 pp	1.15
Viking FK not to score	12.8%	6.4%	+6.4 pp	7.79
Aalesunds FK to score	72.3%	64.5%	+7.8 pp	1.38
Aalesunds FK not to score	27.7%	35.5%	−7.8 pp	3.61
Both teams to score	64.4%	62.5%	+1.9 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.6%	37.5%	−1.9 pp	2.81
Viking FK 2+ goals	58.6%	76.6%	−18.0 pp	1.71
Viking FK at most 1 goal	41.4%	23.4%	+18.0 pp	2.42
Aalesunds FK 2+ goals	33.7%	29.1%	+4.6 pp	2.97
Aalesunds FK at most 1 goal	66.3%	70.9%	−4.6 pp	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	85.0%	89.4%	−4.4 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.0%	10.6%	+4.4 pp	6.67
Over 2.5 goals	61.4%	73.7%	−12.2 pp	1.63
Under 2.5 goals	38.6%	26.3%	+12.2 pp	2.59

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Viking FK sample: 20 matches
Aalesunds FK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.