Fortuna Sittard 0:2 AZ Alkmaar: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard Home 0.44 xG · 4 shots

AZ Alkmaar Away 4.35 xG · 26 shots

02 The scoreline reflected the chances

AZ Alkmaar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was AZ Alkmaar's attack: 4.35 xG against 1.76 projected (+2.59). Fortuna Sittard produced 0.44 xG against 1.09 projected (−0.65).

Goals

58' Jizz Hornkamp AZ Alkmaar · 0.77 xG chance 0–1
90' Jizz Hornkamp AZ Alkmaar · 0.87 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Fortuna Sittard: 21%
Draw: 27%
AZ Alkmaar: 52% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Fortuna Sittard 1.09 0.44 -0.65

AZ Alkmaar 1.76 4.35 +2.59

AZ Alkmaar produced 2.59 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Fortuna Sittard AZ Alkmaar

Shots: 4; 26
On target: 2; 11
Inside the box: 2; 18
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.17
Open play xG: 0.18; 3.16
Set-piece xG: 0.26; 1.16
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 4.43 for AZ Alkmaar.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 4.76 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Fortuna Sittard

1.11 xG created 2.07 xGA

D 1.59 created, 0.75 conceded against NAC Breda
L 0.90 created, 2.03 conceded against SC Heerenveen
L 0.77 created, 2.50 conceded against Feyenoord
L 0.48 created, 2.09 conceded against FC Utrecht
D 0.98 created, 2.56 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
W 1.91 created, 2.51 conceded against SC Cambuur

AZ Alkmaar

1.83 xG created 1.14 xGA

W 1.86 created, 0.64 conceded against SC Heerenveen
D 1.52 created, 1.79 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
D 1.39 created, 0.46 conceded against FC Twente
D 1.45 created, 2.08 conceded against NAC Breda
W 2.67 created, 0.95 conceded against ADO Den Haag
W 2.10 created, 0.91 conceded against FC Utrecht

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Fortuna Sittard: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Fortuna Sittard against AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
AZ Alkmaar at most 1 goal	2.63	+20.2%	Lost
AZ Alkmaar not to score	8.00	+19.9%	Lost
Draw	4.20	+15.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.60	+15.2%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+10.3%	Lost
Fortuna Sittard to win	5.25	+8.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fortuna Sittard	20.6%	18.1%	+2.5 pp	4.86
Draw	27.4%	22.6%	+4.8 pp	3.64
AZ Alkmaar	52.0%	59.3%	−7.3 pp	1.92

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fortuna Sittard to score	69.3%	66.3%	+3.1 pp	1.44
Fortuna Sittard not to score	30.7%	33.7%	−3.1 pp	3.26
AZ Alkmaar to score	85.0%	88.1%	−3.1 pp	1.18
AZ Alkmaar not to score	15.0%	11.9%	+3.1 pp	6.67
Both teams to score	60.5%	60.8%	−0.3 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.5%	39.2%	+0.3 pp	2.53
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals	29.8%	33.7%	−3.9 pp	3.35
Fortuna Sittard at most 1 goal	70.2%	66.3%	+3.9 pp	1.43
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals	54.2%	64.5%	−10.3 pp	1.85
AZ Alkmaar at most 1 goal	45.8%	35.5%	+10.3 pp	2.18
Over 1.5 goals	81.6%	84.2%	−2.6 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.4%	15.8%	+2.6 pp	5.44
Over 2.5 goals	55.7%	63.8%	−8.1 pp	1.80
Under 2.5 goals	44.3%	36.2%	+8.1 pp	2.26

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Fortuna Sittard sample: 20 matches
AZ Alkmaar sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.