Fantasy Premier League

Who to captain

The captain's armband doubles whatever happens, so an average is the wrong number to pick on. Every candidate here carries the shape of his week as well as its middle — how bad it reasonably gets, how good it reasonably gets, and how often it is a haul.

The model's captain

Bobby Thomas

DEF · NEW (H) · 4.0m · owned by 8.5%

4.4

Projected

floor 1 5.5% a haul ceiling 8

Doubled by the captain's armband that is 4.4 points, from a floor of 2.

Gameweek 6 · 3-round window · feed of 01/10 11:39

Bobby Thomas is the model's captain for gameweek 6, at 4.42 projected points. It is a close call — only 0.14 separates him from Gabriel Magalhães, which is inside the model's own error.

His modelled week runs from 1 to 8 points before the captain's armband doubles it, and reaches 10 or more 6% of the time.

His fixture

2 of 5

The model rates his home fixture a 2 out of five.

His ceiling

8.0

His is the highest ceiling on the board at 8.0 points, and he hauls 6% of the time.

His start

92%

He is 92% to start, which is about as close to nailed on as this model ever says.

His ownership

8.5%

He is owned by 8.5% of the game, so captaining him is a move rather than a hold.

Best differential

John Egan is the best differential on the board: owned by 7.0%, projected at 4.01.

See the differentials board →

The top five on this board

The board as your controls leave it — the same five that open the table below.

Ranked 1 Bobby Thomas

DEF vs

4.4 Pts

floor 1 ceiling 8

Haul

5.5%

Start

92%

Own

8.5%

NEW (H)
Ranked 2 Gabriel Magalhães

DEF vs

4.3 Pts

floor 1 ceiling 8

Haul

4.6%

Start

92%

Own

23%

LEE (H)
Ranked 3 Riccardo Calafiori

DEF vs

4.1 Pts

floor 1 ceiling 7

Haul

4.1%

Start

92%

Own

51%

LEE (H)
Ranked 4 John Egan

DEF vs

4.0 Pts

floor 1 ceiling 8

Haul

3.0%

Start

92%

Own

7.0%

EVE (H)
Ranked 5 James Tarkowski

DEF vs

3.9 Pts

floor 1 ceiling 8

Haul

2.2%

Start

92%

Own

17%

HUL (A)

Position

All GKP DEF MID FWD

Setting

Safe Balanced Aggressive

At least

Any Very safe Safe Rotation risk

Rounds ahead

3 rounds 5 rounds 8 rounds

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Showing 40 of 163 players 163 of 487 match your filters Clear filters

Player Fixture Price Pts Floor — ceiling Haul Start Own

1 Bobby Thomas DEF vs NEW (H) 4.0m 4.4 1

8 5.5% 92% 8.5%

1 Bobby Thomas 4.4

DEF vs NEW (H) · 4.0m

Haul: 5.5%
Start: 92%
Own: 8.5%

2 Gabriel Magalhães DEF vs LEE (H) 8.0m 4.3 1

8 4.6% 92% 23%

2 Gabriel Magalhães 4.3

DEF vs LEE (H) · 8.0m

Haul: 4.6%
Start: 92%
Own: 23%

3 Riccardo Calafiori DEF vs LEE (H) 5.8m 4.1 1

7 4.1% 92% 51%

3 Riccardo Calafiori 4.1

DEF vs LEE (H) · 5.8m

Haul: 4.1%
Start: 92%
Own: 51%

4 John Egan DEF vs EVE (H) 4.1m 4.0 1

8 3.0% 92% 7.0%

4 John Egan 4.0

DEF vs EVE (H) · 4.1m

Haul: 3.0%
Start: 92%
Own: 7.0%

5 James Tarkowski DEF vs HUL (A) 6.2m 3.9 1

8 2.2% 92% 17%

5 James Tarkowski 3.9

DEF vs HUL (A) · 6.2m

Haul: 2.2%
Start: 92%
Own: 17%

6 António Silva DEF vs CHE (A) 5.0m 3.8 1

8 4.5% 92% 0.4%

6 António Silva 3.8

DEF vs CHE (A) · 5.0m

Haul: 4.5%
Start: 92%
Own: 0.4%

7 Chris Richards DEF vs NFO (H) 4.9m 3.8 1

8 2.8% 92% 0.6%

7 Chris Richards 3.8

DEF vs NFO (H) · 4.9m

Haul: 2.8%
Start: 92%
Own: 0.6%

8 Murillo DEF vs CRY (A) 5.5m 3.8 1

8 3.4% 92% 2.1%

8 Murillo 3.8

DEF vs CRY (A) · 5.5m

Haul: 3.4%
Start: 92%
Own: 2.1%

9 Jay Dasilva DEF vs NEW (H) 4.0m 3.7 1

7 3.6% 92% 0.7%

9 Jay Dasilva 3.7

DEF vs NEW (H) · 4.0m

Haul: 3.6%
Start: 92%
Own: 0.7%

10 Jarrad Branthwaite DEF vs HUL (A) 5.5m 3.6 1

8 2.3% 92% 2.4%

10 Jarrad Branthwaite 3.6

DEF vs HUL (A) · 5.5m

Haul: 2.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 2.4%

11 Lewis Hall DEF vs COV (A) 5.3m 3.6 1

7 2.3% 92% 17%

11 Lewis Hall 3.6

DEF vs COV (A) · 5.3m

Haul: 2.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 17%

12 Tarik Muharemović DEF vs ARS (A) 5.0m 3.5 1

8 2.1% 92% 4.3%

12 Tarik Muharemović 3.5

DEF vs ARS (A) · 5.0m

Haul: 2.1%
Start: 92%
Own: 4.3%

13 Leif Davis DEF vs FUL (H) 4.0m 3.5 1

8 4.9% 92% 6.9%

13 Leif Davis 3.5

DEF vs FUL (H) · 4.0m

Haul: 4.9%
Start: 92%
Own: 6.9%

14 Harry Maguire DEF vs TOT (H) 4.8m 3.5 1

7 2.7% 92% 8.6%

14 Harry Maguire 3.5

DEF vs TOT (H) · 4.8m

Haul: 2.7%
Start: 92%
Own: 8.6%

15 Sven Botman DEF vs COV (A) 5.0m 3.5 1

8 2.1% 92% 0.7%

15 Sven Botman 3.5

DEF vs COV (A) · 5.0m

Haul: 2.1%
Start: 92%
Own: 0.7%

16 Kristoffer Ajer DEF vs AVL (A) 4.5m 3.4 1

8 2.3% 92% 3.9%

16 Kristoffer Ajer 3.4

DEF vs AVL (A) · 4.5m

Haul: 2.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 3.9%

17 Dara O'Shea DEF vs FUL (H) 4.0m 3.4 1

8 2.5% 92% 2.7%

17 Dara O'Shea 3.4

DEF vs FUL (H) · 4.0m

Haul: 2.5%
Start: 92%
Own: 2.7%

18 Tyrick Mitchell DEF vs NFO (H) 4.5m 3.4 1

7 3.0% 92% 6.1%

18 Tyrick Mitchell 3.4

DEF vs NFO (H) · 4.5m

Haul: 3.0%
Start: 92%
Own: 6.1%

19 Virgil van Dijk DEF vs MCI (H) 6.5m 3.4 1

8 2.6% 92% 16%

19 Virgil van Dijk 3.4

DEF vs MCI (H) · 6.5m

Haul: 2.6%
Start: 92%
Own: 16%

20 James Hill DEF vs CHE (A) 5.5m 3.4 1

8 2.2% 92% 0.8%

20 James Hill 3.4

DEF vs CHE (A) · 5.5m

Haul: 2.2%
Start: 92%
Own: 0.8%

21 Semi Ajayi DEF vs EVE (H) 4.2m 3.3 1

7 3.2% 92% 14%

21 Semi Ajayi 3.3

DEF vs EVE (H) · 4.2m

Haul: 3.2%
Start: 92%
Own: 14%

22 Issa Diop DEF vs FUL (H) 4.0m 3.3 1

8 2.2% 92% 13%

22 Issa Diop 3.3

DEF vs FUL (H) · 4.0m

Haul: 2.2%
Start: 92%
Own: 13%

23 Adrien Truffert DEF vs CHE (A) 5.4m 3.3 1

7 1.9% 92% 3.0%

23 Adrien Truffert 3.3

DEF vs CHE (A) · 5.4m

Haul: 1.9%
Start: 92%
Own: 3.0%

24 Nordi Mukiele DEF vs BHA (H) 5.4m 3.2 0

8 3.8% 75% 1.9%

24 Nordi Mukiele 3.2

DEF vs BHA (H) · 5.4m

Haul: 3.8%
Start: 75%
Own: 1.9%

25 James Justin DEF vs ARS (A) 4.5m 3.2 1

6 1.3% 92% 1.4%

25 James Justin 3.2

DEF vs ARS (A) · 4.5m

Haul: 1.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 1.4%

26 Luka Vušković DEF vs SUN (A) 5.0m 3.1 0

7 2.1% 92% 3.7%

26 Luka Vušković 3.1

DEF vs SUN (A) · 5.0m

Haul: 2.1%
Start: 92%
Own: 3.7%

27 Neco Williams DEF vs CRY (A) 5.0m 3.1 1

6 2.1% 92% 8.7%

27 Neco Williams 3.1

DEF vs CRY (A) · 5.0m

Haul: 2.1%
Start: 92%
Own: 8.7%

28 Maxim De Cuyper DEF vs SUN (A) 5.0m 3.1 0

7 3.1% 92% 28%

28 Maxim De Cuyper 3.1

DEF vs SUN (A) · 5.0m

Haul: 3.1%
Start: 92%
Own: 28%

29 Marc Guéhi DEF vs LIV (A) 6.0m 3.1 0

6 2.3% 92% 18%

29 Marc Guéhi 3.1

DEF vs LIV (A) · 6.0m

Haul: 2.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 18%

30 Vitalii Mykolenko DEF vs HUL (A) 4.6m 3.1 1

6 1.5% 92% 4.2%

30 Vitalii Mykolenko 3.1

DEF vs HUL (A) · 4.6m

Haul: 1.5%
Start: 92%
Own: 4.2%

31 Anan Khalaili DEF vs NFO (H) 5.0m 3.1 0

8 3.7% 75% 0.3%

31 Anan Khalaili 3.1

DEF vs NFO (H) · 5.0m

Haul: 3.7%
Start: 75%
Own: 0.3%

32 Ryan Giles DEF vs EVE (H) 4.0m 3.1 1

6 1.6% 92% 2.9%

32 Ryan Giles 3.1

DEF vs EVE (H) · 4.0m

Haul: 1.6%
Start: 92%
Own: 2.9%

33 Jeremy Jacquet DEF vs MCI (H) 5.0m 3.0 1

6 1.4% 92% 3.5%

33 Jeremy Jacquet 3.0

DEF vs MCI (H) · 5.0m

Haul: 1.4%
Start: 92%
Own: 3.5%

34 Maxence Lacroix DEF vs BOU (H) 5.9m 3.0 0

8 2.3% 75% 6.8%

34 Maxence Lacroix 3.0

DEF vs BOU (H) · 5.9m

Haul: 2.3%
Start: 75%
Own: 6.8%

35 Joško Gvardiol DEF vs LIV (A) 5.7m 3.0 0

6 1.4% 92% 27%

35 Joško Gvardiol 3.0

DEF vs LIV (A) · 5.7m

Haul: 1.4%
Start: 92%
Own: 27%

36 Malick Thiaw DEF vs COV (A) 5.0m 3.0 0

6 1.5% 92% 2.2%

36 Malick Thiaw 3.0

DEF vs COV (A) · 5.0m

Haul: 1.5%
Start: 92%
Own: 2.2%

37 Lisandro Martínez DEF vs TOT (H) 5.0m 2.9 0

6 2.1% 75% 1.3%

37 Lisandro Martínez 2.9

DEF vs TOT (H) · 5.0m

Haul: 2.1%
Start: 75%
Own: 1.3%

38 Victor Lindelöf DEF vs BRE (H) 4.5m 2.9 0

6 2.4% 92% 0.3%

38 Victor Lindelöf 2.9

DEF vs BRE (H) · 4.5m

Haul: 2.4%
Start: 92%
Own: 0.3%

39 Wesley Fofana DEF vs BOU (H) 5.0m 2.9 0

7 1.6% 75% 0.2%

39 Wesley Fofana 2.9

DEF vs BOU (H) · 5.0m

Haul: 1.6%
Start: 75%
Own: 0.2%

40 Luke Shaw DEF vs TOT (H) 4.3m 2.9 0

6 1.7% 75% 7.7%

40 Luke Shaw 2.9

DEF vs TOT (H) · 4.3m

Haul: 1.7%
Start: 75%
Own: 7.7%

the week a footballer's usually falls in the projection every bar on one axis of 0 to 12 points

What a floor and a ceiling are here

The floor is the 10th percentile of a modelled week and the ceiling is the 90th — the range a footballer's week usually falls in, not the worst and best he has ever had. The haul column is how often that week reaches 10 points.

Bonus points are projected nowhere on this site, so the ceiling is a ceiling on modelled scoring rather than on Fantasy points. Every other figure here excludes them too.

The spread is composed from the same parts the projection beside it is: its average is that projection, so the two cannot tell a reader different things about the same footballer.

The setting reweights the ranking by ownership and changes no arithmetic of its own. The model's own pick stays on the page at every setting, and the verdict at the top is always his.

Every figure here is what he scores, not what the captain's armband makes of it. Captaining him doubles all of it — the floor as well as the ceiling.

The board is every player the game would let you field, the flagged included — whether a doubtful player is worth picking is a judgement the projection makes with his published chance of playing, not one made by hiding him.

What is measured here, and what is not

Measured The projected points

Replayed against gameweek 2 after it was played: an average miss of 1.617 points a player, against 1.842 for “predict what he has averaged so far”, over 456 players. Recorded Sunday, 6 September 2026 and refreshed by hand, so the date is part of the claim.
Not measured The floor, the ceiling and the chance of a haul

Percentiles of a week composed from the same rates the projection uses. They reconcile with it by construction, which is not the same as having been checked against a round anybody played — nothing on this site has scored a floor or a ceiling.