KV Kortrijk 1:3 RC Sporting Charleroi: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 18:15

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Match report · Jupiler Pro League

KV Kortrijk Home 1.20 xG · 13 shots

RC Sporting Charleroi Away 1.69 xG · 17 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

RC Sporting Charleroi were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was RC Sporting Charleroi's attack: 1.69 xG against 1.29 projected (+0.40).

Goals

34' Aurélien Scheidler RC Sporting Charleroi · 0.27 xG chance 0–1
41' Shandre Campbell KV Kortrijk · 0.59 xG chance 1–1
66' Cheick Keita RC Sporting Charleroi · 0.22 xG chance 1–2
90' Antoine Colassin RC Sporting Charleroi · 0.55 xG chance 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

KV Kortrijk: 33%
Draw: 31%
RC Sporting Charleroi: 36% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

KV Kortrijk 1.24 1.20 -0.04

RC Sporting Charleroi 1.29 1.69 +0.40

RC Sporting Charleroi produced 0.40 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

KV Kortrijk RC Sporting Charleroi

Shots: 13; 17
On target: 5; 5
Inside the box: 8; 12
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.05; 1.10
Set-piece xG: 0.18; 0.53
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.20 for KV Kortrijk and 1.62 for RC Sporting Charleroi.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 2.86 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

KV Kortrijk
RC Sporting Charleroi
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

KV Kortrijk

0.82 xG created 2.52 xGA

L 0.86 created, 3.85 conceded against Club Brugge KV
L 0.77 created, 1.19 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC

RC Sporting Charleroi

1.79 xG created 0.71 xGA

L 0.82 created, 0.97 conceded against KVC Westerlo
D 2.18 created, 0.83 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
W 1.91 created, 0.58 conceded against Standard Liège
W 3.15 created, 1.30 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
W 1.25 created, 0.34 conceded against Lommel SK
W 1.44 created, 0.23 conceded against KV Mechelen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on KV Kortrijk against RC Sporting Charleroi before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
KV Kortrijk to win	3.70	+22.0%	Lost
RC Sporting Charleroi at most 1 goal	1.83	+13.9%	Lost
RC Sporting Charleroi not to score	4.50	+11.4%	Lost
KV Kortrijk 2+ goals	3.00	+7.6%	Lost
Draw	3.40	+7.0%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+4.9%	Lost
KV Kortrijk to score	1.40	+3.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KV Kortrijk	33.0%	24.8%	+8.1 pp	3.03
Draw	31.5%	27.0%	+4.5 pp	3.18
RC Sporting Charleroi	35.6%	48.1%	−12.6 pp	2.81

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KV Kortrijk to score	74.0%	66.3%	+7.7 pp	1.35
KV Kortrijk not to score	26.0%	33.7%	−7.7 pp	3.85
RC Sporting Charleroi to score	75.3%	79.2%	−3.9 pp	1.33
RC Sporting Charleroi not to score	24.7%	20.8%	+3.9 pp	4.04
Both teams to score	57.5%	54.7%	+2.9 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.5%	45.3%	−2.9 pp	2.36
KV Kortrijk 2+ goals	35.9%	31.3%	+4.6 pp	2.79
KV Kortrijk at most 1 goal	64.1%	68.7%	−4.6 pp	1.56
RC Sporting Charleroi 2+ goals	37.9%	50.0%	−12.1 pp	2.64
RC Sporting Charleroi at most 1 goal	62.1%	50.0%	+12.1 pp	1.61
Over 1.5 goals	76.3%	75.4%	+0.8 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.7%	24.6%	−0.8 pp	4.21
Over 2.5 goals	47.6%	52.6%	−5.1 pp	2.10
Under 2.5 goals	52.4%	47.4%	+5.1 pp	1.91

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
KV Kortrijk sample: 2 matches
RC Sporting Charleroi sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

KV Kortrijk has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.