Friday, 21/08/2026 at 20:45
Full timeStandard Liège 2:0 RAAL La Louvière
Standard Liège were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Standard Liège's attack: 1.15 xG against 1.46 projected (−0.31).
Goals
- 68' Salieu Drammeh Standard Liège · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
- 73' Salieu Drammeh Standard Liège · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Standard Liège
- 42% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- RAAL La Louvière
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Standard Liège produced 0.31 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 12
- On target
- 4
- 5
- Inside the box
- 9
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 0.81
- 0.61
- Set-piece xG
- 0.35
- 0.41
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.15 for Standard Liège and 1.01 for RAAL La Louvière.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 2.18 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Standard Liège
- RAAL La Louvière
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.63 xG created 1.76 xGA
- W 1.74 created, 1.07 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- D 0.62 created, 2.04 conceded against KRC Genk
- W 2.57 created, 1.34 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- L 0.58 created, 1.91 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- D 2.60 created, 1.47 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- D 1.64 created, 2.75 conceded against KV Mechelen
1.13 xG created 1.81 xGA
- L 1.80 created, 1.75 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- L 0.50 created, 1.88 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- L 1.67 created, 1.47 conceded against FCV Dender
- W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- L 0.74 created, 3.05 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- L 0.54 created, 1.18 conceded against KAA Gent
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière 2+ goals | 3.75 | +22.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +14.2% | Lost |
| RAAL La Louvière to score | 1.53 | +9.6% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | +3.8% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | +3.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +3.2% | Lost |
| RAAL La Louvière to win | 3.75 | +2.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liège | 42.3% | 48.4% | −6.1 pp | 2.36 |
| Draw | 30.4% | 27.1% | +3.3 pp | 3.29 |
| RAAL La Louvière | 27.4% | 24.5% | +2.8 pp | 3.66 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liège to score | 79.4% | 78.3% | +1.1 pp | 1.26 |
| Standard Liège not to score | 20.6% | 21.7% | −1.1 pp | 4.86 |
| RAAL La Louvière to score | 71.5% | 60.8% | +10.7 pp | 1.40 |
| RAAL La Louvière not to score | 28.5% | 39.2% | −10.7 pp | 3.51 |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 48.0% | +10.6 pp | 1.71 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.4% | 52.0% | −10.6 pp | 2.41 |
| Standard Liège 2+ goals | 44.2% | 46.3% | −2.1 pp | 2.26 |
| Standard Liège at most 1 goal | 55.8% | 53.7% | +2.1 pp | 1.79 |
| RAAL La Louvière 2+ goals | 32.7% | 25.0% | +7.7 pp | 3.05 |
| RAAL La Louvière at most 1 goal | 67.3% | 75.0% | −7.7 pp | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | 70.9% | +7.0 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.1% | 29.1% | −7.0 pp | 4.52 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 45.4% | +4.6 pp | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 54.6% | −4.6 pp | 2.00 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Standard Liège sample
- 20 matches
- RAAL La Louvière sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.