Wednesday, 19/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeAtlético Madrid 2:0 Málaga
Atlético Madrid were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Málaga's attack: 0.15 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.90). Atlético Madrid produced 0.92 xG against 1.55 projected (−0.63).
Goals
- 70' Kang-in Lee Atlético Madrid · 0.09 xG chance 1–0
- 85' Alex Baena Atlético Madrid · 0.05 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Atlético Madrid
- 48% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Málaga
- 23%
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Projected vs produced
Málaga produced 0.90 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 5
- On target
- 6
- 1
- Inside the box
- 8
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.03
- Open play xG
- 0.48
- 0.15
- Set-piece xG
- 0.34
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.82 for Atlético Madrid.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
20 shots · 0.97 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Atlético Madrid
- Málaga
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.83 xG created 1.50 xGA
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga to win | 9.50 | +115.4% | Lost |
| Málaga 2+ goals | 6.00 | +69.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.25 | +56.0% | Lost |
| Atlético Madrid not to score | 8.00 | +48.3% | Lost |
| Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +38.0% | Lost |
| Málaga to score | 1.91 | +29.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | +19.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +1.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | 47.6% | 71.7% | −24.1 pp | 2.10 |
| Draw | 29.7% | 18.2% | +11.5 pp | 3.37 |
| Málaga | 22.7% | 10.1% | +12.6 pp | 4.41 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid to score | 81.5% | 88.1% | −6.6 pp | 1.23 |
| Atlético Madrid not to score | 18.5% | 11.9% | +6.6 pp | 5.39 |
| Málaga to score | 67.8% | 48.5% | +19.3 pp | 1.47 |
| Málaga not to score | 32.2% | 51.5% | −19.3 pp | 3.11 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 44.3% | +12.8 pp | 1.75 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.0% | 55.7% | −12.8 pp | 2.33 |
| Atlético Madrid 2+ goals | 47.4% | 64.5% | −17.1 pp | 2.11 |
| Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal | 52.6% | 35.5% | +17.1 pp | 1.90 |
| Málaga 2+ goals | 28.2% | 15.8% | +12.5 pp | 3.54 |
| Málaga at most 1 goal | 71.8% | 84.2% | −12.5 pp | 1.39 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | 76.2% | +1.3 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.5% | 23.8% | −1.3 pp | 4.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 52.6% | −3.3 pp | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 47.4% | +3.3 pp | 1.97 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Atlético Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Málaga sample
- 0 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 21 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Málaga — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.