Levante UD 5:2 Real Betis: xG & match report · La Liga

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Levante UD Home 2.76 xG · 19 shots

Real Betis Away 1.92 xG · 20 shots

52 The scoreline reflected the chances

Levante UD were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 5–2. The biggest difference was Levante UD's attack: 2.76 xG against 1.40 projected (+1.36). Real Betis produced 1.92 xG against 1.12 projected (+0.80).

Goals

24' Adrián de la Fuente Levante UD · 0.22 xG chance 1–0
34' Marc Bartra Real Betis · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
45' Enzo Bardeli Levante UD · 0.01 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
45' Rodrigo Riquelme Real Betis · 0.61 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
56' Roger Brugué Levante UD · 0.13 xG chance 3–2
70' Roger Brugué Levante UD · 1.00 xG chance 4–2
90' Jon Ander Olasagasti Levante UD · 0.38 xG chance 5–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Levante UD: 41% What happened
Draw: 31%
Real Betis: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Levante UD 1.40 2.76 +1.36

Real Betis 1.12 1.92 +0.80

Levante UD produced 1.36 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Levante UD Real Betis

Shots: 19; 20
On target: 10; 6
Inside the box: 14; 16
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.10
Open play xG: 2.71; 1.06
Set-piece xG: 0.43; 0.91
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.14 for Levante UD and 1.97 for Real Betis.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

39 shots · 5.11 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Levante UD
Real Betis
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Levante UD

1.83 xG created 1.15 xGA

W 3.22 created, 0.63 conceded against Osasuna
W 1.52 created, 2.18 conceded against Celta Vigo
W 2.39 created, 0.30 conceded against Mallorca
L 2.28 created, 1.51 conceded against Real Betis
L 0.28 created, 1.55 conceded against Espanyol
D 1.28 created, 0.70 conceded against Osasuna

Real Betis

1.36 xG created 1.45 xGA

D 1.94 created, 2.40 conceded against Real Sociedad
W 1.80 created, 0.40 conceded against Elche
L 0.97 created, 1.12 conceded against Barcelona
W 1.51 created, 2.28 conceded against Levante UD
W 1.24 created, 1.36 conceded against Real Sociedad
W 0.71 created, 1.12 conceded against Valencia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Levante UD: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Levante UD against Real Betis before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Levante UD to win	3.40	+40.4%	Won
Levante UD 2+ goals	3.00	+25.8%	Won
Real Betis not to score	4.00	+17.4%	Lost
Real Betis at most 1 goal	1.67	+14.5%	Lost
Levante UD to score	1.40	+9.4%	Won
Draw	3.30	+3.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	+0.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Levante UD	41.3%	28.0%	+13.3 pp	2.42
Draw	31.2%	28.8%	+2.4 pp	3.20
Real Betis	27.5%	43.2%	−15.8 pp	3.64

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Levante UD to score	78.1%	66.3%	+11.9 pp	1.28
Levante UD not to score	21.9%	33.7%	−11.9 pp	4.57
Real Betis to score	70.7%	76.6%	−5.9 pp	1.42
Real Betis not to score	29.3%	23.4%	+5.9 pp	3.41
Both teams to score	57.1%	53.3%	+3.7 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	42.9%	46.7%	−3.7 pp	2.33
Levante UD 2+ goals	41.9%	31.3%	+10.7 pp	2.38
Levante UD at most 1 goal	58.1%	68.7%	−10.7 pp	1.72
Real Betis 2+ goals	31.3%	44.3%	−12.9 pp	3.19
Real Betis at most 1 goal	68.7%	55.7%	+12.9 pp	1.46
Over 1.5 goals	76.2%	74.5%	+1.8 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.8%	25.5%	−1.8 pp	4.20
Over 2.5 goals	47.4%	50.0%	−2.6 pp	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	52.6%	50.0%	+2.6 pp	1.90

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Levante UD sample: 20 matches
Real Betis sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.