Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 19:00
Full timeSanta Clara 1:0 Famalicão
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 38%. Santa Clara won 1–0. The biggest difference was Santa Clara's attack: 1.36 xG against 0.94 projected (+0.42).
Goals
- 22' Gonçalo Paciência Santa Clara · 0.65 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Santa Clara
- 35% What happened
- Draw
- 38%
- Famalicão
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Santa Clara produced 0.42 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 9
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 8
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 1.11
- 0.93
- Set-piece xG
- 0.27
- 0.10
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.36 for Santa Clara and 1.05 for Famalicão.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
21 shots · 2.41 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Santa Clara
- Famalicão
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.49 xG created 0.70 xGA
- W 2.55 created, 0.15 conceded against Sporting Braga
- D 1.86 created, 0.78 conceded against FC Arouca
- W 1.37 created, 0.61 conceded against CD Nacional
- L 0.47 created, 0.85 conceded against FC Porto
- D 1.43 created, 1.23 conceded against CD Nacional
- W 1.27 created, 0.58 conceded against Académico Viseu FC
1.20 xG created 0.93 xGA
- W 1.05 created, 0.66 conceded against Estoril Praia
- D 1.53 created, 1.55 conceded against Benfica
- D 2.00 created, 0.25 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
- W 0.56 created, 0.46 conceded against FC Alverca
- D 1.47 created, 1.06 conceded against Estoril Praia
- L 0.59 created, 1.61 conceded against Marítimo
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.50 | +12.5% | Won |
| Draw | 2.90 | +10.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 2.50 | +9.2% | Won |
| Both teams not to score | 1.70 | +2.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 35.0% | 34.8% | +0.1 pp | 2.86 |
| Draw | 38.0% | 32.4% | +5.6 pp | 2.63 |
| Famalicão | 27.0% | 32.7% | −5.7 pp | 3.70 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 39.7% | 45.3% | −5.7 pp | 2.52 |
| Both teams not to score | 60.3% | 54.7% | +5.7 pp | 1.66 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.3% | 62.5% | −6.2 pp | 1.78 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 43.7% | 37.5% | +6.2 pp | 2.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25.0% | 37.5% | −12.5 pp | 4.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 75.0% | 62.5% | +12.5 pp | 1.33 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Santa Clara sample
- 20 matches
- Famalicão sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.