Olympique Lyonnais 1:1 Le Havre: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Olympique Lyonnais Home 1.75 xG · 15 shots

Le Havre Away 0.69 xG · 12 shots

11 Olympique Lyonnais had the better chances, but it finished level

Olympique Lyonnais were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Olympique Lyonnais's attack: 1.75 xG against 1.45 projected (+0.30). Le Havre produced 0.69 xG against 0.99 projected (−0.30).

Goals

74' Ally Samatta Le Havre · 0.19 xG chance 0–1
87' Loïs Openda Olympique Lyonnais · 0.27 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Olympique Lyonnais: 46%
Draw: 31% What happened
Le Havre: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Olympique Lyonnais 1.45 1.75 +0.30

Le Havre 0.99 0.69 -0.30

Olympique Lyonnais produced 0.30 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Olympique Lyonnais Le Havre

Shots: 15; 12
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 12; 8
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.39; 0.65
Set-piece xG: 0.29; 0.03
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.72 for Olympique Lyonnais and 0.67 for Le Havre.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.36 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Olympique Lyonnais
Le Havre
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Olympique Lyonnais

1.68 xG created 1.65 xGA

W 0.62 created, 3.12 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
W 2.12 created, 0.52 conceded against Auxerre
W 3.17 created, 0.84 conceded against Stade Rennais
L 1.54 created, 1.13 conceded against Toulouse
L 1.91 created, 1.54 conceded against RC Lens
W 0.70 created, 2.77 conceded against Toulouse

Le Havre

1.10 xG created 1.35 xGA

D 1.45 created, 1.07 conceded against Angers
D 1.99 created, 1.58 conceded against Metz
D 0.14 created, 1.55 conceded against Lille
L 1.14 created, 1.21 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
W 1.25 created, 1.30 conceded against Lorient
L 0.60 created, 1.39 conceded against AS Monaco

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Olympique Lyonnais: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged5 won4 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Olympique Lyonnais against Le Havre before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Le Havre to win	6.25	+43.0%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+38.7%	Won
Olympique Lyonnais not to score	6.50	+35.2%	Lost
Olympique Lyonnais at most 1 goal	2.25	+26.4%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+15.4%	Won
Le Havre 2+ goals	4.33	+12.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+11.5%	Lost
Le Havre to score	1.67	+9.4%	Won
Both teams to score	1.91	+2.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympique Lyonnais	46.3%	63.9%	−17.6 pp	2.16
Draw	30.8%	21.0%	+9.8 pp	3.24
Le Havre	22.9%	15.1%	+7.7 pp	4.37

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympique Lyonnais to score	79.2%	85.4%	−6.2 pp	1.26
Olympique Lyonnais not to score	20.8%	14.6%	+6.2 pp	4.81
Le Havre to score	65.6%	55.7%	+9.9 pp	1.52
Le Havre not to score	34.4%	44.3%	−9.9 pp	2.91
Both teams to score	53.8%	50.0%	+3.8 pp	1.86
Both teams not to score	46.2%	50.0%	−3.8 pp	2.17
Olympique Lyonnais 2+ goals	43.8%	58.9%	−15.1 pp	2.28
Olympique Lyonnais at most 1 goal	56.2%	41.1%	+15.1 pp	1.78
Le Havre 2+ goals	26.0%	21.7%	+4.3 pp	3.85
Le Havre at most 1 goal	74.0%	78.3%	−4.3 pp	1.35
Over 1.5 goals	74.3%	78.0%	−3.7 pp	1.35
Under 1.5 goals	25.7%	22.0%	+3.7 pp	3.89
Over 2.5 goals	45.1%	54.9%	−9.8 pp	2.22
Under 2.5 goals	54.9%	45.1%	+9.8 pp	1.82

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Olympique Lyonnais sample: 20 matches
Le Havre sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.