Wednesday, 02/12/2026 at 19:00
59d 14h to kick-offFerencváros TC – Budapest Honvéd FC
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Ferencváros TC
- 57%
- Draw
- 24%
- Budapest Honvéd FC
- 19%
| Ferencváros TC | Draw | Budapest Honvéd FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.76 | 4.14 | 5.24 |
- Total goals
- 3.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Ferencváros TC
57% Ferencváros TC to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 5th
- Ferencváros TC attack v Budapest Honvéd FC defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 10th
- Ferencváros TC defence v Budapest Honvéd FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs -0.51
- xGD per match, last 3
- Projected goals
- 2.08 – 1.22
- Ferencváros TC v Budapest Honvéd FC
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 3 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Ferencváros TC | Budapest Honvéd FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.35 · 3rd from 3 matches | 1.23 · 11th from 3 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.64 · 2nd from 3 matches | 1.74 · 4th from 3 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.72 · 2nd from 3 matches | -0.51 · 8th from 3 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.91 · 2nd from 3 matches | 1.08 · 8th from 3 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.87 | -0.51 from 3 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Ferencváros TC clean sheet
- 27%
- Ferencváros TC 2+ goals
- 64%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 1:1
- 11.1%
- 3:1
- 7.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Ferencváros TC sample
- 20 matches
- Budapest Honvéd FC sample
- 3 matches
- Home xG sample · Ferencváros TC
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Budapest Honvéd FC
- 1 match
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Warnings
- Budapest Honvéd FC has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.