Újpest 3:1 Vasas: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 19:30

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Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Újpest Home 2.64 xG

Vasas Away 1.56 xG

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Újpest were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Újpest's attack: 2.64 xG against 1.83 projected (+0.81). Vasas produced 1.56 xG against 1.82 projected (−0.26).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Újpest: 38% What happened
Draw: 25%
Vasas: 37%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Újpest 1.83 2.64 +0.81

Vasas 1.82 1.56 -0.26

Újpest produced 0.81 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Újpest Vasas

Shots: 13; 15
On target: 7; 3
Inside the box: 8; 10
xG per shot: 0.20; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Újpest

1.64 xG created 1.94 xGA

L 0.69 created, 1.44 conceded against Ferencváros TC
L 1.07 created, 2.57 conceded against Debreceni VSC
W 2.09 created, 2.24 conceded against Debreceni VSC
W 2.89 created, 0.65 conceded against Kisvárda FC
D 0.97 created, 2.49 conceded against MTK Budapest
L 2.12 created, 2.22 conceded against Paksi FC

Vasas

2.38 xG created 1.60 xGA

W 2.36 created, 0.42 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
W 3.28 created, 1.80 conceded against Budapest Honvéd FC
L 1.49 created, 2.58 conceded against Puskás Akadémia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged6 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Újpest against Vasas before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Vasas 2+ goals	2.10	+18.4%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	+14.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.50	+13.3%	Won
Vasas to score	1.25	+7.7%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+6.3%	Won
Vasas to win	2.80	+4.0%	Lost
Újpest 2+ goals	1.80	+2.2%	Won
Újpest to score	1.17	+0.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Újpest	37.6%	42.6%	−4.9 pp	2.66
Draw	25.2%	25.5%	−0.3 pp	3.96
Vasas	37.1%	31.9%	+5.2 pp	2.69

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Újpest to score	86.3%	81.1%	+5.3 pp	1.16
Újpest not to score	13.7%	18.9%	−5.3 pp	7.32
Vasas to score	86.2%	75.0%	+11.2 pp	1.16
Vasas not to score	13.8%	25.0%	−11.2 pp	7.22
Both teams to score	75.5%	62.5%	+13.0 pp	1.32
Both teams not to score	24.5%	37.5%	−13.0 pp	4.09
Újpest 2+ goals	56.8%	51.5%	+5.3 pp	1.76
Újpest at most 1 goal	43.2%	48.5%	−5.3 pp	2.31
Vasas 2+ goals	56.4%	44.3%	+12.1 pp	1.77
Vasas at most 1 goal	43.6%	55.7%	−12.1 pp	2.29
Over 1.5 goals	91.1%	81.1%	+10.0 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	8.9%	18.9%	−10.0 pp	11.23
Over 2.5 goals	73.1%	59.9%	+13.1 pp	1.37
Under 2.5 goals	26.9%	40.1%	−13.1 pp	3.72

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Újpest sample: 20 matches
Vasas sample: 3 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Vasas has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.